As far as I can tell, this is actually a very interesting question, esp as (correct me if I'm wrong on the timing) the warrants expire AFTER ASCO. It's a very interesting situation as I see it (and other folks I've discussed this with agree), because imo $1 seems like a very low bottom for positive topline data on the ph3 trial. I mean that if NWBO expected to have topline data before those warrants expire, then the warrants might be priced so low that they really wasted a lot of money if they get ph 3 results in time and they are really positive. OTOH they had to make a guess on the market and would want to be sure to be primed for the warrants to move into the money and get exercised so that they will pretty automatically raise $21M should they get dynamite news by the date in June that those warrants expire. I don't think it's wishful thinking to believe that a. top line results *might* be announced as early as ASCO and b. that stock will run above $1 if the results are positive. If that happens while the warrants are still active, the result would be that the warrants get exercised (possibly lots getting exercised maybe fairly automatically as soon at the stock crosses $1 and the stock can be sold right away so that the warrants would effectively be cashless exercised even if the company didn't set that up to be automatic), the company gets $21M cash from that, and maybe 21M shares go up for sale as soon as the stock crosses $1, possibly tying the stock down to the $1 level of even pushing it below $1, depending on how strong the demand is vs 21M $1 warrant shares.
Personally, I may be optimistic but I'd expect the stock to close at $1.50 or better on a topline data announcement. So I've been thinking it might even be possible that NWBO has some other possible plan for ASCO and/or other info to put out that they might hope could move the stock above $1 in advance of ph 3 topline data. I know that sounds a bit absurdly optimistic, but what the heck, just taking a WAG at what they might be thinking about. Exwanna has pointed out that they could end up playing the same gambit as they did the last time they had given warrants priced way above the market: use the warrant instrument to issue new stock without a public offering by simply granting the warrant holder free new warrants below the current the market and repricing the $1 warrants to market level, all to get the warrants exercised at whatever the market is in mid-june. Given past disappointments we can't totally reject that possibility as long as we are WAGing about what might transpire in June.
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