Replies to post #26332 on Intellipharmaceutics International Inc. (IPCI)

[zoomlik]

If overall

1- net margins is 3X
2- market share capture is 1/2
3- Branded sales volume is 6X (all strength vs 2 strength in Focalin )

Net effect is 9 fold or $5.4M for Seroquel


Seems too high

[wimuskyfisherman]

Angelo- I hope you are right. But my estimates for Seroquel are coming in at $3M per quarter. Maybe a little higher. I could possibly see $4M and would be ecstatic with $4.5M. But I don't think we will get there. I just want everyone to have realistic expectations and not be surprised when earnings are announced. The earnings will be good news and show IPCI moving into profitability. But these $5M or more a quarter estimates are in my opinion way off. Good luck!

[wimuskyfisherman]

Angelo- You yourself said PAR has about 34% of the 15 and 30mg Focalin market. That market is $200M annually. 34% of $200M is $68M. IPCI is getting $2M or 3% of that $68M. 1% of the total $200M. I highly doubt they will get a 30-50% royalty on the Seroquel sales. Use common sense here. The deal is better on Seroquel but not by a factor of 10. Once again, $1M per month and maybe $1.25M and I will be jumping for joy with $1.5M per month.