Replies to post #268437 on Tornado Alley (PROG)

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Republicans fret that Trump's ineptitude will turn 2018 into their worst nightmare

By Kerry Eleveld
Monday Apr 24, 2017 · 1:10 PM CST

Trumpidation (noun): That uneasy sinking feeling you get when you realize that the guy who infiltrated your party and took it over is going to take you down with him.

Folks, the enthusiasm gap between Democratic and Republican voters is real, and everyone from White House aides to Mitch McConnell to Democratic groups are obsessed with it.

At the White House, Reince Priebus and Steve Bannon have been studying the special elections thus far in Kansas and especially Georgia, where Democratic candidates ran far better than would be expected in any environment that didn't include Donald Trump's wild misfires and dreadful approval ratings. They breathed a sigh of relief when Democrat Jon Ossoff didn’t clear the 50 percent mark necessary for him to avoid a June runoff with a Republican, writes Politico:
Republicans sound alarm on Trump's troubles ahead of 2018
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/24/trump-congress-midterms-2018-237505

Yet as Republican strategists examine that special election, and one for a conservative Kansas seat a week earlier, they’re seeing evidence of a worrisome enthusiasm gap. In the run-up to the Georgia election, low-propensity Democratic voters — people who in years past did not consistently turn out to the polls — cast ballots at a rate nearly 7 percentage points higher than low-propensity Republicans, according to private polling by one Republican group.

In Kansas, the chasm was wider. Infrequent Democratic voters cast ballots at a rate of 9 percentage points higher than low-propensity Republicans did.

Democratic voters are essentially champing at the bit for any opportunity they get to grind Trump's administration to a halt, though the popular vote loser's overall ineptitude has been giving progressives a huge assist. While many Republicans worry about losing some two dozen seats that would flip the House majority to Democrats, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell isn't taking the Senate for granted either:

McConnell has privately expressed concern about Trump’s approval ratings and lack of legislative wins, according to two people familiar with this thinking. A student of political history, the Senate leader has warned that the 2018 map shouldn’t give Republicans solace, reminding people that the party in power during a president’s first term often suffers electorally.

Most worrisome for Republicans is the fact that they are having trouble convincing worthy GOP candidates to jump into races in this environment.
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/4/24/1655835/-Republican-candidates-weigh-sitting-out-2018-because-Trump?_=2017-04-24T11:31:24.194-07:00

Meanwhile, Democratic groups are noting the exact same dynamic with eager anticipation, writes David Weigel.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/04/24/priorities-usa-democrats-can-expand-the-2018-electorate/?utm_term=.4631a85454e7

In a new survey, taken in the first week of April by Global Strategy Group and Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, Priorities USA found that Democrats who tend to sit home in midterm elections were unusually motivated to turn out in 2018. Fifty-eight percent of “drop-off” voters said they were extremely motivated and enthusiastic about voting in the 2018 elections, rating their interest as nine or 10 on a 10-point scale. An additional 22 percent of the voters were “somewhat” motivated to turn out.

“These voters are ready to turn out,” said Guy Cecil, Priorities USA’s chairman. “I was at the DSCC in 2006 when Democrats took back the Senate; I was at the DSCC when Republicans took it back in 2014. There wasn’t a circumstance where I saw eight out of 10 drop-off voters expressing interest in the election.”

Perhaps unsurprisingly, stopping Trump is uniquely animating for these voters. They actually name him as the most important issue facing the country more than they name any other factor.

On the other end of the spectrum, GOP donors also see Trump as an issue, including one the Republicans' biggest benefactors, billionaire Sheldon Adelson.

Adelson, the Las Vegas casino mogul, has privately complained about Trump’s failure to fulfill his campaign promise to move the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, three people close to the billionaire said. Adelson is also rankled that some people he recommended for administration posts haven’t yet been tapped.

More fundamentally, Adelson is dismayed by what he sees as a state of chaos in the new administration, these people said. In what some Republicans are interpreting as a sign of his frustration, Adelson has yet to give money to any of the pro-Trump outside groups set up to boost the president’s agenda.

If you don’t have donors, you don’t have voters, and you don’t have candidates, elections can indeed be a bit challenging.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/4/24/1655801/-Republicans-fret-that-Trump-s-ineptitude-will-turn-2018-into-their-worst-nightmare