Replies to post #26315 on Intellipharmaceutics International Inc. (IPCI)

[wimuskyfisherman]

Zoom- I am coming up with same as you- $3M per quarter on Seroquel. Maybe a little higher but lots of moving parts... We will know more after Q2 results. All that being said, Q3 and Q4 profitable but 2017 will show a very small loss of around $1M. 2018 should show decent profit!

[AngeloFoca]

There is one major omitted calculator in your figuring... we'll use your figures and apply that calculator to see what really happens using your figures.

IPCI's royalty %age on Focalin is around 5% to 10%.

IPCI's royalty %age on Seroquel is probably around 30% to 40%.

So... on the minimum... if Focalin royalty now 10% versus Seroquel 30% then that calculating factor would be your $1.5 million per quarter X 3 or $4.5 million per quarter.

And... on the maximum... if Focalin royalty now 5% versus Seroquel 40% then that calculating factor would be your $1.5 million per quarter X 8 or $12 million per quarter.

Suddenly looks quite different than your figuring... but it's your figures with the one element you oversaw... and I certainly expect Seroquel royalty %age to be a minimum 30% to possibly 50%.

I think the biggest unknown in all this figuring is whether MNK is as adapt at capturing market share as PAR has been.

ps - I would cut these figures in half as PAR has I believe 34% market share on Focalin... the best I would hope for MNK with Seroquel is 16%, which is the fair share since there are going to be 6 distributors... so far.