Biostock, You and I have been tracking Biogen's interest in and connections with ANAVEX for some months now. Their intimacy with 2-73 has driven much conjecture about how Biogen would react if it proved to be a threat or a possible adjunct to Biogen's MS/AZ drug pipeline. The Forward Pharma legal/patent challenge over the active ingredient in Tecfidera has led Biogen to this proposed settlement of $1.25B plus royalties. In this case Biogen has responded to Forwards attack on one of Biogen's main MS revenue streams. In 2013 Biogen acted in a much more benign way in purchasing the remaining 50% share of the MS drug, Tysabri, from Elan for $3.25B plus royalties. Now we have just seen Biogen pay BMS hundreds of $Millions for a cast off Tau antibody drug to bolster their Amyloid/Tau approach. So who knows how they will approach Anavex. I tend to think Michel Vournatsos will/is negotiating with our Management (remember we also have a strong BOD including Skarpelos one of the founders of ANAVEX) for future partnering /licensing.
I do agree that the patent issue is critical at this juncture. Could that be solved in this instance with a joint BIIB061/2-73 oral remyelination drug?
March 17 post:
Biogen, as I have mentioned is probably the Company with the inside track to either partner with or offer a buy out.
Micheal Vounatsos, Biogen's new CEO has the most to gain or lose on how he approaches ANAVEX for the following reasons:
1. He has 2-73 in his lab and you can be certain that his scientists are evaluating the drug not only for is efficacy as a MS remyelination agent but for its broader CNS disease capabilities. If he let's this opportunity slip out of his hands, his tenure at Biogen will be short.
From a previous post_ "the current Biogen/Annavex MTA is much more complicated than just proving that 2-73 is effective in remyelination. Biogen has a $10B/yr market for its current MS drug line-up, with Tecfidera bringing in the most cash. All their current drugs treat symptoms and have limits to patient applications as well as some pretty bad side effects. They also have two of their own remyelination drugs, Opicinumab and BIIB061 under investigation. So the question of the MTA once it proceeds to the assay phase is whether 2-73 is more effective than what they have seen with Opicinumab(anti-LINGO) and/or BIIB061. Additionally, They may want to try a combo with one or more of their current drugs in the market in order to facilitate patenting and save market share. As I said in my last post, Biogen is now feeling immense pressure with Celgenes P3 success with Ozanimod. "
2. Biogen's primary drug for Alzheimer's, Aducanumab, was acquired from Neurimmune in a $386M plus royalties partnership in 2007. An antibody approach to reducing amyloid plaque, it has shown questionable promise. However, Biogen is entering an immensely costly P3 involving 2700 participants at 200 locations in a number of countries. As evidence mounts for 2-73's efficacy, Biogen will have to " fish or cut bait" with Aducanumab. (may have decided to cut bait with the BMS drug)
Knowing that other BP's/Bio"s are becoming aware of ANAVEX.s S1 platform, it is logical that Missling and Vounatsos are speaking often...and as others on this board have surmised, a preliminary offer if one has been tendered has not been near what Missling would consider, thus the defensive moves proposed to the shareholders to strengthen his hand.(still has Shareholders Rights)
Biogen(IDEC), has bought four small drug companies, all of them well under a $Billion and their largest outlay was the TYSABI MS drug rights buy out from Elan for $3.25B plus royalties. So, you might question their cash ability to play with the "Big Boys" in the future if the don't act now.
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