The previous chart I posted, shows the Fibonacci retrace levels for the more recent waves. from the recent pivot lows at 4.95,5.17 and 5.50. But these are just the measurements coming off of the rally bounce that began at 4.95 and 'peaked' at 6.30
These Fibonacci retrace levels are what represents the pullback targets in a bullish rally wave that would be considered still ongoing. and the key is that very question, Is this rally still ongoing? meaning,is it going to retest the 6.64 peak and try to rally higher,to the technical targets at 7/8/9 area.
But there is a different set of Fibonacci retrace levels that need to be shown as well, for a different wave structure, and that would be based on the entire rally from 2.43 bottom and 2.76 pivot low to the 6.64 peak as a Finished rally, in the larger picture.
and in this larger picture, based on the 6.64 peak as a Finished rally, the Fibonacci retrace levels are much lower down ,at the 5.00/4.70/4.50/4.35 area.
These two different chart readings, are on the verge of a changing momentum, where the rally momentum could be fizzling and the Resistance capping zone overhead could represent the trigger for a greater pullback that would likely retest the 5 dollar base for starters, and really wants to retest the 4.70/4.50/4.35 math points.
At the moment, while AVXL has fallen to the 5.65 step so far, and still shows the bullish series of "higher lows" (above 5.50/5.17)
IF the powers that move the price somehow decide that 6.64 is the rally completion for this cycle,there could soon come a change of momentum,and a change of the wave pattern, from looking upward to looking further downward.for a greater pullback to lower targets.
In the first chart of the closeup ,the latest rally wave bounce that began at 4.95 and so far, peaked at 6.30, you can see the series of Fibonacci retrace targets centered between 5.90-5.50 area. and AVXL is currently bouncing around these target steps.and there would be no problem to worry about,seeing this week hold at 5.65 ,as long as the rally is not finished.If we get the next rally surge next week, then it will look like blue skies again,or at least like theres a chance to see higher highs above the 6.64 peak.
But IF the 6.64 peak represents a Finished rally already finished.Then the bounce that got capped at 6.30 represents a (wave B) to a lower high, to a resistance danger zone (5.90-6.30) where Failure could mean a new downwave might begin. and that kind of pattern would become the bias in the greater pullback that should find retrace targets closer to 5.00-4.80-4.70-4.50-and even testing 4.40/4.30 area. these low targets would become "in play" on the technical chart. Its a big difference between a rally holding a pullback at 5.50 and surging higher to 7 and 8 dollars, versus a Finished rally (at 6.64) beginning to make a larger retrace that has targets at 5.00-4.70-4.50-4.30
It remains to be seen what the Powers that move and control price will intend to do in the next move. IF they plan to rally some more, we should see the pullback bleeding start to hold support here at 5.65 or the next few steps lower, like 5.55/5.50,maybe 5.45,and then a good rally gets going. Conversely....IF the powers intend to call the 6.64 top a finished rally, and they plan to make a greater downwave to retest the 5 dollar base and the lower targets (4.90/4.80/4.70/4.64/4.53/4.40),the first decent clue would be to see a continued determined Capping at this overhead resistance zone, (5.90/6.00/6.10/6.20/6.30) that betrays their intention to bleed the price down as far as they can take it. The technical targets ,hard as it is to imagine are starting at 5 dollars and run as low as 4.20 area. 4.30, and the 200ma would become a target at that 4.30 area. When you look back at every AVXL rally, you see what has happened after the rally. In this regard, the idea the powers could take it down 1 dollar from here to test 4.50 is not so far fetched. But only time will tell.
As I said before, the key to getting a clue now is to watch the overhead resistance (from 5.80-6.30 ) and see if it Fails to break thru it, and starts getting slammed down instead.
It was a very decent rally that ran from 2.43 to 6.64. The Fibonacci retrace zone is way down around 4.50
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