Replies to post #98691 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[gburgin]

I would certainly agree that if a sky high price (relative to $6) were paid for this stock, the acquirer would run the stock way up in advance to justify the price. (Or maybe allow a few "loose lips" to start a stampede into the stock).

[2014turnaround]

Exactly thats what I just stated a bit ago. It run up before buyout price!

[Bourbon_on_my_cornflakes]

That's talking sense. If someone made a public tender offer, there would be nothing for Missling to hold back on disclosing, he would put it all out there and the entire market would look at it, instead of the tiny universe looking at us now. The Stock could easily run to $60-100 and then a 100% premium woulkd be accepted.

[stealthways]

Very well put ..... and this is exactly why the actual share price right now is very likely "meaningless": i.e. it has zero relationship to the actual underlying intrinsic value of the company.... The powers that control could have us at 2 dollars or 12 dollars right now just as easily as where it is now (and for example make shareholder cringe exactly the same as with a bleed from 12 down to 11.50 as from 6 to 5.50 or a bleed from 2.00 to 1.50) and it would be exactly the same thing ... still the share price would be meaningless in this relationship to value ..... unless and until all known data and information is known and revealed, and probability valuation assessments done on the same, this situation will persist...
So back to a potential buy out , and since I feel we are worth high double digits right now, as a minimum, and very much more with risk reducing data, you can not even look at the price of avxl (it is totally meaningless right now, randomly picked by the powers running things), but when someone wants the tech, and they understand the real value, exactly as you state it will be repriced in an instant (days) simply by revealing all information and then step two is the actual buy out offer... So the multiple will be more in line with typical multiples... The caveat is that every situation is different also, and with game changing tech like avxl has I would not expect it to play exactly by what other companies have gone through in buy outs...I would not be surprised if avxl charts a slightly unique path...