Replies to post #3779 on 123Tom's TA study group

[123tom]

this is what I meant about retrieving posts....

[123tom]

Tutorial for Fibonacci charting....

lets take a look at learning how to do this.

Over the years Ive found a combination of TA tools that seems to work well together. That's a big development by itself, there are so many tools one can use, it can take half a year of experimenting with just one tool, to know whether you like it or not, it can be very time consuming,it becomes good enough just to find half a dozen tools and indicators that fits your mental and visual style, or some intuitive feel about the mathematics, or even just a personal feeling you cant explain, why you like a tool and don't like another one, finally after maybe 5 years ,7 years, I evolved this particular tool set that works for me to see a more clear picture. The Fibonacci retrace tool is a popular one that is on most chartists basic tool set. Most everyone looks at the Fibonacci retrace ,and I would guarantee that the wall street trading computer programs for sure are programmed with the Fibonacci mathematics as part of its tool set. the other basic tools like SMA's, the 200,50,and 20 ma, are standard. and the Bollinger Bands are also pretty standard as popular tools. I use all these. I also use the Ichimoku cloud(full) tool, and find it very interesting and really by itself captures many key points on the chart. you could spend a year or two just learning how the Ichimoku works. Fibonacci mathematics and geometry is a part of Sacred math , it is really mystical how it works not just in mathematical pattern creation, but how it exists as a pattern within All of Life itself. its mystical. I started including the Fibonacci arc tool about 2 years ago, a more recent addition to my tool set. I look at Pivot points.I count Elliott Waves.It took me about 1 or 2 years to get pretty good at counting Elliott waves, and maybe after 5 years ,a new dimension of skills started awakening in my analytic brain, in all these tools that I use.

After developing my study for the past 8 years,there are still many great tools I have never even looked at , like Gann,(similar to Fibonacci) various indicators I never use, so many to choose from. I don't even have much experience with Exponential moving averages (EMA) versus Simple moving averages (SMA),I use SMA, my fellow collegue ,Citrati uses EMA's,and likes them better. it all depends on what tools you come to like better,and how well they all work together in your chart work . You might experiment with a tool, learn how it works, and decide it isn't all that great, so you discard it and try another tool.


One of the main keys to any charting, using a tool set of about 5-8 different tools, is that they should all work well together to show a clear target area.

One popular tool , the MACD, many people use it...Ive never gravitated to it, I don't use it .I cant even really describe how it works.
Like I say, you could spend many years just studying and experimenting with one or two tools and never have time to explore any others.


On the Stockcharts web site, they are a great charting web site, a free service, to use their chart platform, but the free service only allows you to plot with 3 tools at one time. and since I really want to use about 5 tools, I have to substitute one for another at times.

and draw 2 or 3 charts with different looks from different tools.

Starting with the most basic picture, lets look at AVXL

example A..... tools on the chart
1)Bollinger Bands
2)200ma
3)50ma
and the chart looks like this...





Notice on the chart how the 200ma is way down around 4.40 and isn't in the picture right now,(not to ignore it completely,but for now, ) so I can replace the 200ma with the Ichimoku cloud and see that picture...



you do the same thing with the weekly chart. Always look at Both weekly and daily charts. ALWAYS.

[123tom]

Maybe AVXL will make a start now...

its had enough time to rest.

it showed its support at 5.60, now needs to climb the higher steps and hold the higher lows.

keep up the good work Bio.

you've become a key poster at the forum.
a gift for you for your good work...
they created a moment of magic,and captured brilliantly on video for all time.

..........................................................

[123tom]

AVXL hits the pullback target in a single plunging fall at the open today....

fast and furious comes the move to the pullback target zone. bounces at 5.74



My good fellow,Biostock, youre a good man, and I hope the best for you. If I might respond to your latest PM,in the best diplomatic way I can....I would NEVER recommend that anyone ever trust the technical analysis of that person, she is NOT a good technical analyst. she understands nothing of what I'm doing. Ive tried many times to explain it for her, she continually fails to see the chart picture clearly. she sounds like she knows the chart picture but her forecasts have constantly failed ,and she displays No ability to understand the chart work mathematics that I'm doing. all the while my forecasts have been 90% spot on target. you would not be served well by her 'analysis' the only thing she has any fair grip on is when she watches the bids and asks and the big money trading. she is bitter and jealous toward me because my chart work has always outshined hers. I always try not to rub it in to her face,except a few occasions when she has insulted me too much. otherwise I ignore her posts . be careful who you think is a good technical analyst.
I don't need to put another feather in my bonnet. it speaks for itself.

todays dip at 5.75 was an ok target to buy some. the suddenness of the plunge is a bit alarming. you see how the powers carefully walk price up a little step at a time, maybe jump it a few steps, then they keep it tightly controlled, as if to lull sheeple to sleep, and then they make a giant plunge down. its all trickery. the pop at the open followed by a slam down, is a frequent trick, Ive come to expect it every morning when the set up is there, like it was yesterday.... this 6.00-6.15 area was and still is a Resistance slam down zone. Now, the 6 dollar resistance line is a danger line for more plunging down. the 5.70 support zone is critical to hold any rally momentum this week, otherwise we are looking at a retest of the 5.60/5.50 base. Don't buy too quickly all your shares. I might imagine the odds now, for more plunging down to retest the 5.50/5.60 is at least 50/50

but foor the next few days we might need to watch how strong or weak will this station at 5.75 be. its a critical support step(5.70/5.75/5.80 and it might hold ok. but now we need to watch the resistance around 6 dollars....see how it is rolling over and capping here today at the 6 area.
watching 5.80 to hold support is critical now.

[123tom]

thanks Bio....
one of my favorite songs

I think it was the first song I ever learned, at 3 years old. a very early memory.

AVXL .... is doing this zig zag bounce between these support/resistance points...6.00 and 5.75 area. Last week and from the chart picture developing in the last month.... I could see the balance zone for the rally pattern and the pullback to hold for maintaining a bullish sentiment to the rally, is this 5.75-5.85 area/5.80 target zone. and all we need to see here is a support holding and crafting a base,like what it spent a month doing at 5.60/5.50/5.60,to see it step up to this next higher support level,and it appears to be trying to do that now at 5.75 holding ,so far....

now maybe its ok if AVXL falls down from here to retest the 5.60 area, a better bargain for buying, but it would change the complexion of the pattern a little. not so bullish, more towards neutral. so the feeling here, is that while I'd like to buy more shares in a greater pullback that tests the 5.50 again,or even some negative news, or misrepresentation,a bashing article, something that would 'cause' the lower target zone to be retested again, another bargain zone to buy if it goes there,the picture stays more bullish if it just holds the 5.80 support and continues the rally from here. its hard to say if it will hit those lower targets.

maybe one touch of 5.70 just for fun would be a treat this week. IF you like this zone to buy ok, I might set a stink bid at 5.71,5.65,something like that,5.66.... 5.67, since the peak was 6.17, they got the "7's" going here. the first pullback plunge went to 5.87.... see how their trading programs get hooked on a number. its one reason why I was looking for the pullback target at 5.30, when we have a pivot point at 6.30,its a nice 1 dollar move. but it didn't happen so far.

playing with numbers. its a worthwile exercise in trading.

and these numbers we see on the chart for bottoms, one thing I always do is see what a Double looks like. 3.88 was one of the previous wave pattern lows, whats the double.... 7.76 it will be a target some day. the very bottom was 2.43/2.44, whats the double....4.88 ... look at the chart and see these bizarre surges that spiked right to 4.88 ( Twice !) and slammed back down.
the computer programs leave a trail of evidence don't they.

the latest great pivot low was at 4.95 ,would we see a target around 9.90 some day. the 10 dollar target zone. wheres the 200ma at 4.30? 4.40? double that. its all fun with math right?
The AVXL forum folks have little interest in TA charting right now. I'm getting some nasty responses if I post too much TA. strange,how some people cant see how it works.

keep up the good work. be careful not to buy too much here. The 5.00-5.50 base isn't out of the woods yet. it might be getting there, but if the big money can take it back to 5.50 they surely will try. but its hard to see when they are playing with little battle zones right now, tight between 6.00 and 5.75, 6.15 and 5.65....zig zagging and zig zagging.