Replies to post #97729 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[jimmy667]

I was illustrating a concept, not proposing numbers,they were just plugged in as example.
My point was that there MIGHT be 'a deal on paper' already but it will involve preferred shares which are not authorized yet and when they are we MIGHT get the completion of 'the deal.'

One thing seems likely is that the preferred shares are for a specific purpose which we may hear about after the shareholder meeting. It could be a private placement to raise cash, but seems more likely to be used in a partnership/licensing agreement.

I admit I was being conservative if one considers the Allergan/Heptares deal, but the numbers I plugged in were just to illustrate a point.
For all we knew it could be much larger.

Or there may not be any agreement at all. However, having the preferred shares will give Anavex more flexibility to structure a deal. Which as an investor one should assume as most likely.

But it is about time for Biogen to 'fish or cut bait' is it not?

What struck me was the seeming urgency to approve the 'preferred shares provision' as well as the 'shareholders rights' plan. The scenario of a deal being agreed with preferred shares involved is just one possible explanation.

[Talon38]

Jimmy, Powerwalker, Biogen as I've stated before, is the most logical M&A/Partner because of the the possible impact of ANAVEX's pipeline drugs on its core business in MS and its hope for Aduccanumab in Alzheimers. Add its current intimacy with 2-73 thru the MTA and most of the conjecture about who's first in line in negotiations point to Biogen. However, as trials and data accumulate, and are positive, the number of serious suitors will multiply. These other big Bio's/Pharma's will bring an increasing amount of cash to the table. I believe the floor bid to get into the game is as stated below in my post on the growing pressure on Biogen's business. Dr Missling would set this as a starting point knowing that Biogen paid $3.25B for the full rights of its partnership with Elan in the MS drug, Tyasbri. The strength of his hand will grow over time which, as you point out, will increase the urgency of the suitors to act now.

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"Additional pressure on Biogen to get their business jump started. How about this partnership offer: $5B in cash/stock for 50% in future 2-73 profits with Biogen handling all the manufacturing, distribution, and marketing. ANAVEX keeps the rest of the pipeline especially 3-71 but Biogen handles the drug development/trials with the right of first refusal to buy into any successful foiiow-on drug at an ANAVEX 60%/Biogen 40% ratio. (You make your own proposal with any other possible partnering entity)

Some might say why can't we do this ourselves ....ANAVEX, less than a dozen employees, $20M in assets
BIOGEN, 7350 employees worldwide , $20B in assets "


http://www.biospace.com/News/biogen-faces-biggest-one-day-drop/449921?type=email&source=GP_031717