• The NASDAQ composite (OTC) hit an all time high last week.
The negatives
In spite of a strong week for the indices, new highs continued to deteriorate.
The positives
New lows decreased and the secondaries outperformed the blue chips.
Seasonality
Average returns for the coming week have been mixed, but a little weaker during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle than average.
April
Since 1963, over all years, the OTC in April has been up 67% of the time with an average gain of 1.5%. During the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle April has been up 77% of the time with an average gain of 2.8% (helped considerably by a 15% gain in 2001 and a 12.3% gain in 2009). The best April ever for the OTC was 2001 (+15.0%), the worst 1970 (-18.5%).
Conclusion
The market had a good week and is a little overbought while seasonality for the coming week is mixed.
I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday April 7 than they were on Friday March 31.
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