Replies to post #20834 on Market Direction and Stock Trends

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Mike Burk: Technical Market Report

* April 8, 2017

The good news is:

• Seasonality, next week has been very strong.

The negatives

New highs continued to deteriorate and the secondaries continue to under perform the blue chips.

The positives

New lows increased last week, but remain at non threatening levels.

Seasonality

Average returns for the coming week have been mixed, but much stronger during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle than average.

April

Since 1963, over all years, the OTC in April has been up 67% of the time with an average gain of 1.5%. During the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle April has been up 77% of the time with an average gain of 2.8% (helped considerably by a 15% gain in 2001 and a 12.3% gain in 2009). The best April ever for the OTC was 2001 (+15.0%), the worst 1970 (-18.5%).

Conclusion

The breadth indicators have been deteriorating for several months and something has to give (either the breadth indicators improve or the indices fall). New lows have remained benign and Seasonality for next week is very strong.

I expect the major averages to be higher on Thursday April 14 than they were on Friday April 1.

Last weeks positive forecast was a miss.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/44124/technical-market-report-for-april-8-2017

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