Replies to post #106779 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[john1045]

Great job on timeline of upcoming events and payments related around them! IMO Looks like some significant news coming!

Message in reply to:

Quote:
NW Bio and Whitebox have negotiated a time payment approach tailored to the Company's development schedule with increasing periodic payments over the course of the next 4 months.


So let's look at that time schedule, and how it might marry up to some other events. I know Flipper will see this immediately. Looks like the larger payments are wrapped around and follow after the two biggest oncology conferences.

Could be a coincidence, but it seems plausible that their increasing "Development Schedule" is tied to what might be announced at these events.


(a) immediate payment to the Holder of $500,000 in cash, plus accrued interest through the stated maturity of the notes at 7% per annum, with retirement by the Holder of an equivalent amount of bonds;

(b) immediate issuance to the Holder of $1.5 million worth of the Company’s common stock based on the 5-day VWAP of $0.3713 per share for the common stock measured from March 1, 2017;

(c) payment, on the earlier of March 31, 2017 or the third business day after any new funding raise by the Company, of $500,000 plus accrued interest through the stated maturity of the Notes at 7% per annum, with a commensurate Bond retirement to occur upon the fulfillment of all obligations under the repurchase agreement;

April 1-5 - AACR Annual Meeting 2017

(d) payment, on April 19, 2017, of $2,000,000, plus accrued interest through the stated maturity of the Notes at 7% per annum, with retirement of $2,000,000 of bonds

payment, on May 20, 2017, of $2,500,000 plus accrued interest through the stated maturity of the Notes at 7% per annum, with retirement of $2,500,000 of bonds;

ASCO Annual Meeting - June 2-6

(e) payment, on June 20, 2017, of $5,500,000 plus accrued interest through the stated maturity of the Notes at 7% per annum, with retirement of $5,500,000 of bonds,; and

(f) payment, when any cumulative financing of new cash during the period of the Note Repurchase Agreement exceeds $15 million, of 30% of such excess amount to repurchase Notes from the Holder within three business days of the closing of any such raise.

Such prepayments will reduce the latest scheduled payments then currently due.

[Basin Street Blues]

All in all a lot better than I expected , I`ve
used 175m `shares out` for all of my forward looking calculations so
anything less than that is great as far as I`m concerned.

[Know-Fear]

Started reading your reply to BSB and for a second thought you were going to present the timeline whilst avoiding using "ASCO".

[H2R]

Feels like the end game has started. Let's see if LL moves to checkmate.

Reading the PR, I had something along your thoughts and Dan88's; You both laid it out very clearly.

By June 20th, it looks like we'll have some real news.

Good luck to patients, NWBO, and Longs!

[TiltMyBrain]

Don't we have a trial slated to begin April 1st???

[vator]

Nice post. The deal looks good and the timing as you point out is pretty interesting.

[flipper44]

Thanks Senti. I don't believe NWBO has anything at AACR, but I could be wrong.

ASCO is not necessarily off the table. The different dates for submission acceptance, title release, abstract all seem exactly in line with the agreement -- except LBA and June 20 -- but I'll try not to make a big deal about it, because even if there was a shell submission in February 2017 (which we do not know), it could be withdrawn if there was not enough time to do an analysis. I don't exactly know why June 20, 2017 would be out so far, unless it is when they expect OS results in, or, if I were on either side of the negotiation, it leaves time for NWBO to find other funding or make other announcements if ASCO is not what we might hope for. All this seems to have been worked out before a final PFS analysis was done, so it is drafted with optimism as well as realism. Anyway, ASCO allows withdrawal by April 9, 2017, so nothing really means anything until we hear/read it. Shorts would not be able to tell from the dates and terms at which point big news might truly be revealed -- if at all, so it keeps them on their toes as well.

(P.S. One alternative scenario is there might be some additional news at ASCO regarding Direct that was unanticipated by many, but due to the way IO works, would not be a complete surprise.)

(P.P.S. If April really means first dose for the rGBM trial, NWBO must not be on the hook for initial costs ....otherwise I think that date gets kicked down the road.)

[Stillwell888]

In addition to the staggered repayment schedule what I find interesting is that the notes are no longer convertible. In theory Whitebox could have demanded all shares for repayment of the $11mn. For sake of argument let's use a a price per share of $0.375 which equals over 29mn shares or 18% dilution. Instead they have only diluted by about 3%. Yes they still owe money but if they manage to get another loan there is the possibility of no further dilution from this note.

[Tadasana]

Thanks Senti, nice update, looking forward to June and many more years investing in NWBO! Can't wait till DC-Vax Direct gets approved after DC-Vax L of course. Hope they don't take as long with Direct. Seems like such simple and elegant cure to cancer.

[Virgilio]

Also April 19 is just around 1 month after spring start and June 20 around summer start, don't you see a connection? Come on...

[md1225]

Court case will end Friday then these events could catapult sp toward FDA approval. Thanks senti for posting.

[BioInfo]

By the way, all those in denial are going to miss out big. I see a lot of confidence in NWBO where it sits and how the management feels. obviously they cannot fu$% it up with FDA by disclosing something that is blinded. whether they know or not, the deal made here makes it apparent that they do know OR have over confidence about top line results in the bag. notice they are doing after those important dates, means they know they can easily pay it with successful trial, otherwise they would have made the deal here at 35 cents and not if it fails and goes to below 10 cents. how you raise cash then? Oh, shorts know the answer, yikes!

[colmar]

thanks SS, that's a really helpful post.