Replies to post #1159 on Alon USA Partners, LP (ALDW)

[jugs]

You could be right on all points. Or on just some. It's not for me to suggest either scenario as my balls are not made of crystal.

One issue I wonder about:

Are things really overheating? And if so, then what criteria are used to arrive at that opinion?

My own thought is that---YES! Things are far more interesting and certainly volatile than prior to Trump taking office. But I'm not sure that what we're seeing is at all odd. I suspect that many, many of us expected as much. Surely, at the root of all the excitement is the earlier expectation that we'd soon see concrete rollbacks of regulations and the like in any number of areas. So we're seeing things move along as pledged by Mr. T. Surprised? No.

Yes, oil has been beaten. But there are behind-the-scenes beatings of an ongoing nature. Witness ALDW's 26 cent rise just this past Friday. And then this morning's early trading had us trailing Friday's close by nearly 20 cents. Probably profit-takers moving on rather than chancing losing Friday's gains. And then this morning had us up a bit, down a bit. I expect this vacillation to continue but---and I may be the butt---I'm thinking this week will see ALDW rising above $10.

Could be wishful thinking so we'll have to watch and see.

As for $50 oil? You could be right. But I don't figure on oil-pricing being all that stable. Some nation somewhere, in or out of OPEC---is going to burp loudly enough to threaten the balance that would have us standing in the $50 range. Voracious appetites invariably reflect changes in the air---whether via burps or farts. But they WILL happen as it is humankind's nature to stop at nothing to acquire more. One of the most conspicuous human traits I can see routinely centers about greed. Not very many of us on this planet of ours think in terms of the greater good.

You're a thinker. I like that! Every one of our exchanges proves profitable for me in various ways, not the least of which is that you drive me to think. That is a great gift from you and I thank you for challenging all of us on the board.

[catdaddyrt]

Some are saying higher gas prices this year which means oil will have to go up and I think it will this summer.If Trump can stimulate the economy with jobs then consumption will have to go up, so for now we wait.


Gasoline prices will hit a three-year high in 2017, an industry monitor said Wednesday.

GasBuddy, in its Fuel Price Outlook 2017 said prices, which have fallen steadily since 2012, will climb as oil producing nations reduce supply.

In the Capital Region, prices are projected to peak in the range of $3.10 to $3.35 a gallon sometime in May or June, said Gregg Laskoski, senior petroleum analyst for GasBuddy.

Laskoski cautioned that "there's a lot of uncertainty because you have a lot of moving parts."

It's not clear, for example, how the election of Donald Trump might affect global markets.

"What that also means is Iran may not be able to produce the crude oil it was hoping to produce because there may be more sanction imposed," Laskoski said. The resulting dropoff may put upward pressure on crude prices. That, plus planned production cuts by other producers, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, could propel crude prices higher.

But Laskoski said if they go high enough, say $65 a barrel, for long enough, "a lot of the projects that were suspended, a lot of that fracking is going to get back up in full swing," boosting supply and lowering crude prices.

Another boost to supply could come from the Keystone oil pipeline, which Trump has supported.

"Even if it doesn't bring a single drop of Canadian crude to the U.S., it will still benefit Americans," Laskoski said. "The extra crude helps to put downward pressure on international oil prices."

While the price of crude is likely the primary driver of retail gasoline prices, other factors include refinery and pipeline outages, weather, political turmoil in producing nations, and the strength of the nation's economy.

Even a switch from winter-blend gasoline to the more expensive "summer blend" tends to boost prices as motorists enter the peak summer driving season.

In the Capital Region, the average price for a gallon of gasoline climbed more than 6 cents in the past week to $2.457 on Wednesday, according to the AAA Fuel Gauge report. It's up more than 16 cents in the past month and nearly 30 cents higher than a year ago.

But it's still well below its all-time high of $4.210, set on July 8, 2008.