I like your analysis.
I think Dr. M has been selling about 1M shares every 2 months through the LPC deal. If that's the fact, and (using your numbers) showing an increasing uptrend, then we should realistically expect higher highs and higher lows from here on out (I'm a bit more conservative) and think we'll average and hold fifty cent gains every month from here on out (not accounting for spikes or selloffs) which puts us at about $10 by end of year.
I think we'll be closer to $1B MC only after a partnership, as all the studies can be viewed as a positive development (as I would), but also bad, (as it creates a financial liability with a requirement to succeed.)
As unlikely as this scenario is, (Like going to the beach but not expecting to get bit by a shark) Dr. M has to plan for a scenario where we DO succeed at a P2 for Retts, but then don't get any favorable action from the Cures Act, and then have to raise more money. The same scenario for Parkinsons.
I don't expect the funding to run out - after all, we just got $600k from the Retts foundation, but I can see a vindictive BP stalling or delaying Anavex's studies (or a hostile takeover bid that nosedives the stock price, etc etc etc.) AS we have clearly seen, just having a drug that can turn around Alz and all the other indications apparently doesn't count as 'good enough' on Walstreet, and we - as well as Dr. M, has to be emotionally and financially ready to fight, go it alone, and have to take it all the way through a P3.
Mid-2018 for Retts is my expectation. Anything earlier would be gravy and worth the gap-up we would see the morning of the PR :)
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
