Replies to post #17485 on Cycle Trading

[rotor1]

The Measured Move is a little higher

Doesn't mean it has to be an exact target



I always judge strength by the wicks, as usual there still seem to be dip buyers out there, often more noticeable late in the day. All there is at present is a cautionary note for the brave ones.



CLF caught a cold based on the news that the so called Trump infrastructure bill is likely to be delayed until 2018 - News will always override any technicals

[Duma]

Stock Charts I think uses a little different color scheme than the provider you are using. Stock Charts uses this method.

 
 Hollow C > O 
 Filled C < O

Then they use color to mark where the close was today compared to yday
CT=close today CY=close yday

 
 For Hollow:  white means CT>CY  red means CT<CY 
 For Filled:  black means CT>CY  red means CT<CY

I have to admit that until you put up your post I never really paid that much attention to the red filled vs black filled candles. Of course if they are red filled that is worse case as it says the market is moving downward.

But today's black filled candle indicated that the CT was higher than the CY while the C was lower than the O.

You made the statement A black candle after a significant rise should be treated as a bearish signal

I looked back over several months of SPY and your statement does seem to be very true. The PB is not always that large, but there is almost always some size of a pb.

Here are some good examples for late 2014

[Duma]

Good to know that you are looking at Stock Charts, so we are looking at the same thing.

The black candle means that SnP opened higher today then went into a decline. This is true, but it is also true for a solid red candle. If the decline is enough for the close to be lower than yday, then the candle will be red other wise it is black as it was yday.

Sorry we are focusing on minor details, when the big picture you pointed out is a good one.

[JLS]

X Update,

I thought I posted here that I sold more Calls on X a few days after Buying-2-Close the others. Looking for that post, I see that I didn't post that. At any rate, I did that on Feb 27, and that returned the whole trade back to being a Call Spread. I received $1 for that Call sale.

Today I bought back that Call for nearly half of what I sold it for, thereby receiving $0.52. Now the X trade is just a long-call priced at $40. And, as several minutes have passed, I see I could of got another 7-cents. I'll probably return the trade back to a spread in the next few days -- if the market allows.

I think SMA(20) will hold at EOD, but I don't have any bets on that as I'm often wrong.