InvestorsHub Logo
Replies to #17480 on Cycle Trading

JLS

02/22/17 2:17 AM

#17481 RE: rotor1 #17480

...it needs to rest a bit...

That is the case for pattern trading for those who intend to buy or short a stock directly. That takes a lot of money that you need in your account or have to borrow. U.S Steel is going for $40,000 for 1,000 shares. To lower their risk, stock traders generally wait for the breakout first (letting it rest, as you say) but they also give up some potential profit if they do that.

An options trade has a better risk profile than a stock trade because of their much lower costs. A Call Spread trade on X, covering the same 1,000 shares, will cost the options trader $1,000. That's quite a leverage ratio, 40:1. The options trader can further reduce risk depending on how the trade is set up in terms of timing as well as making a multiple leg trade, of which there are a good number of choices. In exchange for that lower risk, an options trader will take a trade earlier. that raises his risk but he has control over that through his choices -- and, if nothing else, the most he can lose under any circumstances is his original $1,000.

There is another company that I recently discussed here. U.S Steel, symbol X. Check my posts here about four days ago. At that time I took a Bull Call Spread on X, it had risen sharply over a few days and I thought it was likely to rest awhile (which could set up a flag) but wasn't totally sure. The reason I thought it would likely rest was because it was up to a resistance level and was showing no signs of wanting to reverse. I also knew that its resistance level was relatively small and that there was another resistance level a little higher, so if the pattern turned out to be a flag, it would be reasonable to expect it to break out higher. Why not? It's a U.S. steel company!, and trump wants to start a lot of infrastructure projects and that takes a lot of steel. So, because I got into the pattern late for the initial rise, it seemed reasonable to set up a trade in advance of a likely flag formation followed by a breakout after a short period of rest. So, on Feb 13 I took the March 17 40/43 Bull Call Spread.

The flag did form after I took the trade. Four days into the flag, it broke higher today, and it was a gap higher, which is a strong hint that the trade will continue higher. One day into the breakout and my trade is already up very near 100%. There's a lot of days left till March 17.

If X moves along (mostly higher and eating up time value) in such a way that the overhead Calls that I sold drops in value due to significant loss in relative value then I will likely Buy-2-Close those Calls and sell higher Calls upon a further rise in the stock. In that way, I can possibly completely pay for the lower Calls that I bought, and accumulate profit along the rest of the way. In other words, as X continues to rise, I can choose to leapfrog Call trades -- as one Long Call expires, there is already another one there with a longer expiration.