Replies to post #27862 on Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[Wild-bill]

Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 01/13 2017 EOD

I continue to believe we are entering, and likely now fully into, consolidation with the high range likely established. That puts me at consolidating with now a weakening bias as we should begin more forcefully heading to the bottom of the range near-term. I hopeful that it will be around $0.70, for reason discussed far below, and not a dive down to $0.66 for a while longer yet.

Today's deep dives should be considered in light of the "Friday Effect" and long-weekend effect discussed below.

Can you say "flat"? Look at this chart and all my detailed narrative becomes redundant.



N.B. See the comment about the intra-day breakdown MM behavior to gain some color on why today's stuff is essentially useless for near-term prognostication.

There were no pre-market trades.

B/a at 9:29 was 100:500 $0.7302/$0.79.

09:30-10:30 opened the day with a 288 sell for $0.7320. Then came b/a after open of 100:10 $0.7302/$0.74 (offers backed by presented 200 $0.76), 9:33's 100 $0.7302, 9:37's b/a 100:2 $0.7302/$0.76 (offers backed by presented 448 $0.77), 9:38's 200 $0.7650, 9:40's b/a 100:448 $0.7302/$0.77, 9:40's 1K $0.7464, 9:43's 100 $0.7312, and 9:44's 310 $0.7312 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7300/90 (most closer to $0.7300).

B/a at 9:48 was 100:1.1K $0.7302/99, 9:59 100:1.9K $0.7302/98, 10:00 8.7K:1.3K $0.7300/98, 10:11 8.7K:1.7K $0.7300/98, 10:14 8.4K:2.4K $0.7300/97. Volume was interrupted by 10:13's 1.4K $0.7397/00/97. B/a at 10:17 was 8.3K:2K $0.7300/74. Volume was interrupted by 10:26's 2.8K $0.7301/75 and 10:29's 2.2K $0.7373/4. The period ended on 10:30's 100 $0.7305.

10:31-15:33, after nine no-trades minutes that saw b/a at 10:32 of 300:1.8K $0.7305/74, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7306/$0.7338, with falling highs, on 10:40's 100 $0.7306. B/a at 10:47 was 100:1.1K $0.7307/38. Volume was interrupted by 11:01's ~2.4K $0.7306/19. B/a at 11:02 was 6.1K:1.1K $0.7306/15, 11:17 6K:900 $0.7306/7, 11:32 200:1.3K $0.7307/26, 11:48 5.4K:900 $0.7306/7. Volume was interrupted by 11:57's 4.8K $0.7306/34. B/a at 12:18 was 5.1K:300 $0.7306/14, 12:47 4.2K:1.1K $0.7306/7, 13:02 3.9K:1K $0.7306/7, 13:37 300:1K $0.7307/9. Volume was interrupted by 14:00's 3K $0.7306/7. B/a at 14:06 was 3.4K:100 $0.7306/7, 14:17 3.4K:900 $0.7306/7, 14:33 3.4K:600 $0.7306/7, 14:33 3.4K:600 $0.7306/7, 14:47 3.2K:800 $0.7306/7, 15:03 2.4K:400 $0.7306/7, 15:17 1.9K:1.1K $0.7306/7. Volume was interrupted by 15:18's3.5K $0.7306. B/a at 15:33 was 400:1K $0.7306/7. Volume was interrupted by 15:32's ~1.8K $0.7306/7. The period ended on 15:33's 621 $0.7306.

15:34-15:54 began mostly low-volume, some medium-volume, $0.7300/36, with falling highs, on 14:34's 165 $0.73. B/a at 15:40 was 100:1.4K $0.7301/37 (offers being rattled $0.7335/6), 15:43 13.6K:700 $0.7300/38 (offers being rattled), 15:47 100:500 $0.7301/3. The period ended on 15:54's 879$0.7303/4.

15:55-16:00 began the EOD volatility with a wide spread, low/medium-volume $0.73/$0.749 on 15:55's 2.8K $0.7304/3/ ... $0.7480/05/$0.7320/1/0, did 15:56's 1.7K $0.7321/0/$0.7490/$0.7321/0/$0.7490/$0.7321/0, 15:57's 1.4K $0.7321/0r, got 15:58's b/a of 40:1K $0.7320/$0.75 (bids backed by presented 6.3K $0.7303), did 15:58's 3.2K $0.7319/03/04/03/ ... 21/20/19/04/03/$0.7480/$0.7304/03, did 15:59's 6.7K $0.7303/00, and ended the period and day on 16:00's 235 buy for $0.7493, exceeding the mid-point by 18/100ths of a penny. YIPPEE!

There was one AH 3,097 sell for $0.7493.

Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there was 1 larger trade (>=5K & 0 4K+) totaling 5,828, 6.84% of day's volume, with a $0.7303 VWAP, below the day's $0.7326. If we weren't heading into a long weekend off a Friday I would consider these, and the trade volume, alarming. Since we are and are ("Friday Effect" and long weekend), I can't get alarmed about them. That doesn't mean I'm sanguine, but just know that trying to read much into these on such a day is likely fruitless.

 Ending  Period  Period  Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End 
 Period  Volume     Low    High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~% 
  10:30   10134 $0.7300 $0.7650     $7,469.02 $0.7370 12.35% 66.46% 
  15:33   47121 $0.7306 $0.7338    $34,440.95 $0.7309 57.41% 34.57% 
  15:54    7120 $0.7300 $0.7336     $5,206.80 $0.7313  8.67% 32.90% 
  16:00   15663 $0.7300 $0.7493    $11,468.63 $0.7322 19.08% 27.52% Incl 15:59 $0.7303 5,828 
  18:10    3097 $0.7493 $0.7493     $2,320.58 $0.7493  3.64% 26.52%

I apply the same admonition about "Friday" and "long weekend" to these metrics. The only metric that really merits any consideration here is the buy percentage behavior, and that's only for an explanation.

With extremely low volume the MMs try and drum up business via (most likely naked) shorting into the market, which normally produces a falling price that then both hopefully induces buyers and also offers an attractive covering buy price for the MMs (and maybe shorters too?). Under these conditions the MMs generally don't "buy", per se, but sit on the bid and let sellers (today likely mostly other MMs also naked shorting?) hit their bids so they can get both the shorts covered at a lower price and collect the fees from the exchanges for "providing liquidity (sitting on the bid or offer and letting others hit them, called "taking liquidity").

None of the above should be construed, with any confidence, as being suggestive of coming near-term behavior. That job has been fulfilled by other more normal days.

That MM behavior also likely accounts for the VWAP (intra-day?) behavior above (and which has been observed many, many days), and the day's $0.7326 VWAP, down 2.98% from yesterday's $0.7551 (see below).

Without strong market sentiment to counter this innately negative effect on price we have a "negative feedback loop" established that often is, I believe, a major component of the death spiral behavior in stocks that have weak fundamentals and have dissipated the good will that may have existed in the market for some time prior.

On the traditional TA front, movements were:

          __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_ 
 Today     -2.89%  -0.14%  -1.92%  -2.11% -23.48% 
 Prior      0.51%   0.14%   0.87%   1.33%  -9.07%

On my minimal chart yesterday I said { ... volume behavior that continues to suggest we are entering consolidation with the top of the range being defined by the current behavior. } Although we can't put a lot of credence in today's behavior, for the reasons mentioned above, we can't totally ignore it either. It's likely that when traders, MMs, shorters, ... return from the long weekend they will tend to pick up from where today left off and the MM bots, especially, will begin working off what was seen today.

That leads me to think that we have established the near-term high range of the consolidation with the low end of it currently at $0.73ish. I don't expect that low to remain strong much longer though due to the negative feedback loop I mention above. I could see $0.70ish being a potential lower range now, although that is below a couple recent lows of $0.71/2. $0.70 looks like a reasonable pause point due to both the psychologically significant "round number" phenomena and the fact that its a shade below the recent $0.71/2 lows and our downward move has been a halting one. I don't expect that last item to change yet and so $0.70 rather than the $0.66 seems like the near-term most likely pause.

Yesterday, while discussing the possibility of the fast EMA crossing above the slow EMA, I finished with { It sure looks like we are consolidating though and I don't think we'll get the cross. We're likely to see the fast EMA flatten or drop as a leg down within consolidation begins. } It looks like that's happening as the fast EMA turned lower today.

The experimental 13-period Bollinger lower limit, which had been essentially flat, flipped up today while the upper limit continues descending, but now at an increasing rate. The mid-point is moving lower at a slightly lower rate now. Trading range was again wrapped around the mid-point.

On my one-year chart the 10-day SMA continued, for the second day, the rise begun 1/12, the first turn up since 12/1/2016. If we hold here we can get two more days of rise before we start to fall again. Since the 20-day is still falling rapidly we'll likely get a cross below the 10-day in the next day or two, but I don't think that will do much for us. The 50 and 200-day SMAs continue to decline and if we hold here the 20-day would continue to decline 8 (again) more days, the 50 for ~37 more days and the 200 maybe 175 days (visual estimate).

Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in everything but full stochastic and ADX-related. Everything but momentum and Williams %R were still below neutral. Nothing was oversold or overbought.

Today everything but accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me) and full stochastic weakened and those three had only marginal improvement. Everything but momentum and Williams %R are still below neutral. Again, nothing is oversold or overbought.

The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6976 and $0.7857 ($0.6961 and $0.7914 yesterday), are converging with both limits moving towards the mid-point and having a slightly declining mid-point as the upper limit drops faster than the lower limit.

All in, all the above, ignoring the noted "Friday Effect" and long weekend effect discussed above, continues pointing to consolidation and now with a weakening bias as it appears the top of the consolidation range may have been established. This would imply a leg toward the lower limit of the consolidation range should appear shortly.

Again, that's ignoring the noted "Friday Effect" and long weekend effect.



Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, an oft-absent sign of normalcy, but both are in ranges that suggest nothing good near-term. The short percentage accurately reflects, I think, the MM behavior discussed above, as does the buy percentage with MMs likely naked shorting to drum up some volume and then sitting on the bid to do their covering buys.

The spread shrank and is again just a little higher than I would expect for consolidation. Unfortunately it was a result of the old open high and fall routine and even considering the Friday and long weekend is likely indicating a poor start next week, along with poor results.

The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady for the fourth day at 17 negatives and 7 positives. Change since 12/08 is -$0.2087, -22.17%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -1.0029%, -0.9336%, -0.9248%, -0.9789%, -0.8671%, -0.6975%, -0.5381%, -0.7327%, and -1.0983%. We have a bad consistent trend going on these.

All in, continuing to believe we are entering consolidation and now I also think the high end of the range is established. Near-term weakness seems most likely.

Bill