Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 01/17 2017 EOD
Nothing positive is suggested by anything other than a faint hope that the volume and intra-day behavior offer the possibility that most have sold that want to and we might see a reduction in weakening going forward. This does not yet suggest that we have bottomed though.
The day was a typical open high and go lower, but that was the extent of "typical". [B]extremely low-volume for long stretches combined with extremely low buy percentages until the MMs made their moves was quite atypical. This led me to think the MMs were taking care of getting their good customers satisfied by getting them best possible prices and/or shed of their shares. No way to know though.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:53 opened the day with a 497 sell for $0.75 & $0.75 x 2 more. B/a after open was 6.8K:3 $0.75/8 (offer backed by presented 10K $0.7990). Then came 9:31's 200 $0.77/5, 9:32's b/a 100:300 $0.7501/$0.77, 9:33's 1.8K $0.7500/1, 9:34's 10.4K $0.7500/1 (5K)/00, 9:35's 200 $0.75, 9:37's b/a 2.9K:400 $0.73/$0.7499, 9:42's 6K $0.7344, 9:47's 5.1K $0.7307/06/63/06, 9:48's 5K $0.7321, 9:49's b/a 100:200 $0.7307/$0.7499, 9:50's 5K $0.7306, 9:52's b/a 100:600 $0.7307/$0.7480, and the period ended on 9:53's 1.2K $0.7345/08/09.
09:54-12:23 began extremely low/no-volume (e.g. no trade 10:20-:48) $0.7310/$0.7480, with 9:57's b/a of 100:600 $0.7309/$0.7480, and then slowly rising lows and even more slowly falling highs, on 9:59's 100 $0.7480. B/a at 10:03 was 100:500 $0.7309/$0.7480. Volume was interrupted by 10:14's 5.2K $0.7480 and 10:15's 4.4K $0.7480 (3.8K)/$0.7320/$0.7418/$0.7321. B/a at 10:15 was 200:200 $0.7320/$0.7496, 10:20 200:300 $0.7322/$0.7496, 10:32 200:300 $0.7322/$0.7475, 10:48 6K:2.5K $0.7350/$0.7449. Volume was interrupted by 10:51's 2.5K $0.7352 and 10:55's 3.2K $0.7352. B/a at 11:02 was 400:2.9K $0.7353/$0.7448. Volume was interrupted by 11:06's 2K $0.7352/$0.7414. B/a at 11:19 was 200:2.5K $0.7358/$0.7424, 11:33 6K:2.1K $0.7350/$0.7424. Volume was interrupted by 11:35's 7K $0.7351/60. B/a at 11:48 was 5.9K:2.3K $0.7350/$0.7420, 12:02 200:1.1K $0.7351/$0.7419. Volume was interrupted by 12:09's ~3K $0.7350 (2.9K)/1. B/a at 12:17 was 1.5K:900 $0.7350/$0.7418. The period ended on 12:23's 100 $0.7349.
12:24-14:43 began with b/a at 12:24 of 700:500 $0.7308/$0.7418. After one no-trade minute, trading began extremely low/no-volume $0.7308/$0.7393 (208 shares, most <= $0.7322) on 12:25's 200 $0.7308. B/a at 12:35 was 500:600 $0.7308/$0.7416, 12:47 400:600 $0.73/$0.7416, 12:57 5.1K:200 $0.7310/$0.7416, 13:02 200:100 $0.7311/$0.7416. Volume was interrupted by 13:05's 3.1K $0.7337 (3K)/$0.74. B/a at 13:17 was 300:800 $0.7312/$0.7416. Volume was interrupted by 13:20's 3K $0.7312 (200)/$0.7379. That improved volume to very low/no-volume, but just through 13:49, after which the next trade came at 14:14. B/a at 13:32 was 3.7K:3K $0.7310/78, 13:47 6K:2.8K $0.7325/77, 14:02 4.3K:3.3K $0.7325/76, 14:17 4.3K:1.9K $0.7325/73. Volume was interrupted by 14:18-:19's aggregate 4K $0.7325. B/a at 14:26 was 100:1.4K $0.7326/70, 14:33 200:1.6K $0.7325/66 (MMs rattling offers lower). Volume was interrupted by 14:41's 3.2K $0.7330 (3K)/10. The period ended on 14:43's 100 $0.731.
14:44-14:55 began a very high-volume, mostly, sideways $0.7308 (mostly $0.7310)/$0.7355, with falling highs, doing 14:44's 10K $0.7354, 14:45's 12.9K $0.7354/46/54/55/10/48/53, 14:46's 9.3K $0.7340 (4K)/53, 14:47's 9K $0.7310/53 (3.7K)/48 (5K)/52, 14:48's 9.8K $0.7340 (5K)/53/51/4.6K, 14:49's 4.3K $0.7348 (4K)/10, 14:50's 4K $0.7380/67/52/53/52/80/53/80/51/2/3/60/80/53, 14:51's 1.4K $0.7320/12/10, 14:52's 6.7K $0.7310/09, 14:54's 549 $0.7308, and ending the period on 14:55's 9.4K $0.7300/08/00/$0.72/$0.7308/$0.72.
14:56-15:22, after two no-trades minutes, did a move lower after 14:58's 25.3K $0.72 (incl 22.5K in blk/larger trades). B/a at 15:18 was 1K:100 $0.7200/31. Then it hit 15:21's 12.1K $0.72/$0.7191/82/73/55/37/99/98/37/99, and the period ended on 15:22's 2K $0.7168/99/68.
15:23-15:53, after one no-trades minute, began a raggedy very low/no-volume climb up from 15:24's 300 $0.719. B/a at 15:25 was 400:1.3K $0.7190/$0.73, 15:32 400:2.1K $0.7200/99, 15:33 400:400 $0.7192/9, 15:47 800:900 $0.7221/98. The period ended on 15:53's 2.4K $0.7324/00/01/00/49 (100).
15:54-16:00 had b/a at 15:54 of 1.1K:900 $0.7300/50. trade did a medium/low-volume drop on 15:54's 1.4K $0.713, 15:55's 7.5K $0.73/$0.7299/21/49, 15:56's 5.3K $0.7340/39/21/00/$0.7191, 15:57's 500 $0.7191/$0.72/$0.7191, 15:58's 5.6K $0.7191/$0.7267 (3K)/$0.7191/82/73, and ended the day and period on 15:59's 5.4K $0.7173/64/00/01/00/$0.73 (100)/$0.7299 (400)/$0.7181/0 and 16:00's 385 sell for $0.7180.
There were two AH odd-lot trades, $0.72 x 1 and $0.71 x 99.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 18 larger trades (>=5K & 4 4K+) totaling 111,685, 40.91% of day's volume, with a $0.7315 VWAP. For the volume, the count is high and the percentage is very high. It's likely a lot of the day's short percentage (see below) was a result of most of the larger trades.
Note the VWAP is only 1/100th above the day's VWAP. This indicates, IMO, that trading was tightly manipulated to satisfy these larger trades, likely orders from MMs' "good customers".
Take note in the following breakdown of buy percentages and when, by time and VWAP, the larger trades occurred. More importantly, I think, is the early (through 14:43) buy percentages. It's even worse than it look as through 13:15 it had achieved only 4.71%. Then the MMs filled their larger "good customers'" orders IMO. Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:53 40397 $0.7306 $0.7700 $29,838.64 $0.7386 14.80% 0.25% Incl 09:34 4,400 $0.7500 $0.7501
09:42 $0.7344 6,000 09:45 $0.7325 5,000
09:48 5,000 $0.7321 09:50 $0.7308
12:23 34296 $0.7310 $0.7480 $25,347.34 $0.7391 12.57% 4.64% Incl 11:35 $0.7358 6,410
14:43 26847 $0.7308 $0.7416 $19,690.79 $0.7334 9.84% 7.57%
14:55 77186 $0.7200 $0.7380 $56,649.27 $0.7339 28.28% 39.90% Incl 14:44 $0.7354 10,000 14:45 $0.7355 7,000
14:46 $0.7340 4,000 $0.7353 5,000
14:47 5,000 $0.7348 14:48 $0.7340
14:49 $0.7348 4,000
15:22 42418 $0.7137 $0.7250 $30,535.64 $0.7199 15.54% 37.57% Incl 14:58 $0.7200 5,000 17,450
15:21 $0.7199 6,944
15:53 24366 $0.7190 $0.7349 $17,707.61 $0.7267 8.93% 38.50%
16:00 26066 $0.7100 $0.7349 $18,852.85 $0.7233 9.55% 37.66% Incl 15:55 $0.7300 6,081
On the traditional TA front, movements were: __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 2.46% -2.74% 0.65% -3.49% 220.55%
Prior -2.89% -0.14% -1.92% -2.11% -23.48%
The open and high were just the set-up bu the MMs to handle their "good customer" sell orders I think. The low, close and volume tells the true story.
On my minimal chart we see an engulfing bearish candle, suggesting more downside, on rising volume, suggesting strength in today's move. However, this is one time I'll go against the volume suggestion of strength. Because of what I observe intra-day, I believe what we saw in the volume was the exit, for now, of folks badly wanting to get out and the volume today was the equivalent of capitulation. So we might see the weakness gone for a few days or, more likely, much less weakness than the volume is suggesting, allowing the possibility of a small, weak rise.
So I expect a typical consolidation behavior with substantially reduced volume and little price (VWAP is what I key on) movement.
yesterday I said { That leads me to think that we have established the near-term high range of the consolidation with the low end of it currently at $0.73ish. I don't expect that low to remain strong much longer though due to the negative feedback loop I mention above. I could see $0.70ish being a potential lower range now, although that is below a couple recent lows of $0.71/2. $0.70 looks like a reasonable pause point due to both the psychologically significant "round number" phenomena and the fact that its a shade below the recent $0.71/2 lows and our downward move has been a halting one. I don't expect that last item to change yet and so $0.70 rather than the $0.66 seems like the near-term most likely pause. }
I'm still holding to that near-term view.
The fast EMA continued the move lower begun yesterday. This puts the cross above the slow EMA off the table for a while now if thinks behave in the consolidating manner, with mild weakness, maybe, as I expect.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger lower limit, which flipped up yesterday, returned to descending today. Meanwhile the upper limit also continues descending, but now at a reducing rate. The mid-point is moving lower at a slightly lower rate now. Trading range was again wrapped around the mid-point.
On my one-year chart the 10-day SMA continued, for the third day, the rise begun 1/12, the first turn up since 12/1/2016. If we hold here we can get one more day of rise before we would get nine consecutive days of descent. The 20-day is 38/100ths of a penny above the 10-day, making the cross below the 10-day I suggested would happen in a day or two likely. The 50 and 200-day SMAs continue to decline and if we hold here the 20-day would continue to decline 9 (now, was 8) more days, the 50 for now 38 more days and the 200 maybe 190 days (visual estimate, was 175).
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had everything but accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me) and full stochastic weakened and those three had only marginal improvement. Everything but momentum and Williams %R were still below neutral. Again, nothing was oversold or overbought.
Today everything but MFI (untrusted by me) weakened. MFI is the only thing above neutral. Nothing is yet oversold.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6937 and $0.7847 ($0.6976 and $0.7857 yesterday) are still diverging, both are falling, dragging the mid-point marginally lower.
All in the only possible positive I see here would be the volume, along with the intra-day behavior, suggesting that the selling is reaching a crescendo and I expect the downward pressure will begin to abate in a few days, at most. This allows me to anticipate (hope?) that $0.70 will offer at least a pause and maybe even a reversal point. If it doesn't then I think we have to accept that $0.66 will be again visited and challenged for the first time. Recall it is an untested support point and trying to guess, with confidence, if it would hold would be a fools game, IMO. If one uses history as a guide though we could guess it would not.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved moved in opposite directions, not normal nor good, and the short percentage remains above my desired range (needs re-check), although minimally so. The buy percentage improved, but with great difficulty and only by dint of larger trades at lower prices (see breakdown comments above). It remains in a range that suggests near-term weakening will continue.
The spread widened to a range that when in a down trend suggests more weakness. Too, it was produced by the old open high and go much lower the rest of the day, but for a weak recovery into the close. This makes it quite ominous.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings deteriorated to 18 negatives and 6 positives after having held steady for four days at 17 and 7 respectively. Change since 12/09 is -$0.2174, -22.91%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -1.0431%, -1.0029%, -0.9336%, -0.9248%, -0.9789%, -0.8671%, -0.6975%, -0.5381%, and -0.7327%. We have a bad consistent trend going on these.
All in, there is no suggestion of any near-term strengthening and there is agreement that weakening is likely to continue.
Bill
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