Replies to post #6120 on Extreme Deviation Automatic Price Targeting - "X_D (BTC-USD)

[Myst]

Tim,

I understood the context in which you used the word "alchemy", but it suited my purposes to use it as I did.

You mentioned.... "X_DEV was simply recognizing what works generally".

This "generality" was found by keeping the system as simplistic as possible and yet functional enough to serve a variety of investor classes. Indeed, it was no mean feat, but I had the benefit of Lichello's algorithm to spur my reasoning.

"...X_DEV compromises by performing well only with specific stocks"

I'd disagree here. It's like saying water will only quench specific thirsts. X_DEV can work well on all stocks, but the degree to which it works well may be dependent on the stocks inherent volatility, and/or the users time frame, and perhaps a few other minor variables. Sort of like water tasting better to some dewd that just spent 40 days in the desert as opposed to some dewd laying in the sun on a lounge chair on a cruise ship. :-)

"....X_DEV's "limited generality" requires that the user pick stocks with proper volatility (often found by backtesting), be aware of and understand market conditions, and have some technical understanding of what happens when you change the program inputs (multiples etc). This compromise seems workable for most users, with a range of success almost always being better than buy-and-hold, and often a lot better. There's still a human in the loop, but X_DEV seems to help a lot, at least IME."

Well said. It was always my intent to keep the "human in the loop". This quality may not appeal to some who prefer to let the machine have 100% control of the outcome. So be it. I think time will prove (if it hasn't already) the human element is the key to long term success for the majority of traders/investors who have an active interest in the markets. I am even investigating an X_DEV model that uses a genetic algorithm for determining proper parameter settings automatically for those that are "less actively engaged" in the markets but still enjoy some exposure to it.

"...The interesting points here are commitment to the play and personal trading style. I'd interpret the first as either confidence in the company or willingness to wait out a down trend. Trading style could be a lot of things, but I think you mean the length of the plays that the trader prefers.

For "commitment" I simply meant the percentage of capital being used based on the traders overall portfolio. "Personal trading style" meant all classifications of traders from short term aggressive to long term conservative.

Thanks for your thoughts Tim!