Some sane comments. However in this particular case there IS enough information to calculate that equity is getting wiped. It's all there in the docket and in prior SEC filings.
We know exactly what the debt is - DIP, first lien, second lien, unsecured bonds, and preferred shares (all the instruments ranking higher than common). Almost to the cents.
We know EXACTLY how many shares SUNEQ owns of TERP and GLBL and EXACTLY what the trading price is.
We know what projects SUNE has and what they are selling them for.
We know how much cash they have and are using.
There is no secret stash of assets.
When you stack up the assets, which are known with a decent degree of accuracy, against the debt that is owed, it doesn't even come CLOSE to covering the debt. Billions and billions short. And that is BEFORE the lawsuits like Vivint etc which will add NO assets and only add to the debt.
While in general I agree with the "you never know" argument, in THIS case we do know. And it IS hopeless. Even the JUDGE said so when denying an equity committee (which was ridiculous to even suggest in this case).
10-K and 10-Qs will not add much. Most of the questions will be just around accounting for income and losses etc - this is really and simply a balance sheet exercise now and we know more than enough to conclude definitively that equity is getting wiped.
The only real question now is if the unsecured creditors are wiped or if the 2nd lien will be the fulcrum. 2nd liens trade for 50 cents on the dollar so there should be some recovery there. The senior unsecured bonds trade for 3% of par and will likely receive little or nothing (I own them as I think there's a respectable chance they can get 5-15% of par recovery and possibly will become the new equity. Current common shares will get canceled.
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