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Replies to post #583799 on $Stock*Shop*Charts*News*Option$
12/10/16 9:04 AM
We should see a trend change come this month in S&P 500 Cash Index so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a low at 208379 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 221410 to 208379. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline. As of the close of Fri. Dec. 9, 2016, the market is immediately in a bullish posture near-term suggesting it is quite strong trading above the December 2015 high. S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 225953 and is trading up about 10% for the year from last year's closing of 204394. So far, we have been trading up for the past 6 days since the reaction low made on Thu. Dec. 1, 2016, but the key low was made 25 days ago on Fri. Nov. 4, 2016 at 188003.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 5th at 225980, which was up 5 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 31st. We have been generally trading up since the low made week of October 31st at 208379 for the past 5 weeks, which has been a sharp move of 8.44% percent in a stark panic type advance. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of December 5th reaching 225980 has exceeded the previous high of 217999 made back during the week of September 19th. We have seen a rally so far from the last low of 208379 for the past 5 weeks. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune, however, the market remains strong at this time. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 12 weeks overall. Interestingly, the S&P 500 Cash Index has been in a bullish phase for the past 9 months since the low established back in February.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 213472 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during May 2015. Critical support still underlies this market at 177044 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Subsequently, the market made a low in February at 181010 electing four buy signals from that event. This warns that the trend is robust moving forward. Diagnostically, my wide-ranging looking forward recognizes that the current directional movement since the low made back in February 2016 has been a long-term Bullish trend in S&P 500 Cash Index which remains in motion as long as we hold above 204400 on a monthly closing basis. It is incredibly important to identify the broader trend for that is the underlying tone. It is wise to take position counter-trend only with this understanding of what you are doing.
Caution is advisable since this is also 34 years up from the low of given that was the major low 1982. We must pay attention to the closing for this year. If we close lower at year end, beneath 204394, then we can see a pause in the uptrend into next year. Penetrating intraday last year's low of 186701 will confirm a serious correction into next year. However, we have rallied to exceed last year's high last month. We need to see a closing above 213472 at year-end to see a continued rally is possible into next year. Exceeding this year's high next year and holding last year's low intraday will signal the bullish trend is still intact. A breach of last year's low of 186701 intraday will negate that outcome.
Aiming on the longer term yearly level, we see turning points where highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis should form will be, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024. There is a likelihood of a rally moving into 2018 with the opposite trend thereafter into 2020. The most critical model, the Directional Change Model targets are during 2023 and during 2024. This model often picks the high or low, but can also elect a breakout to a new higher trading zone or a breakdown to a new lower trading level. Inspecting the volatility models suggest we should see a rise in price movement during January 2018. We look to the turning points to ascertain the direction. Volatility targets reflect only volatility. However, our Panic Cycle target, for the next period to watchis during 2015. Keep in mind that a Panic Cycle differs from just volatility. This can be either an outside reversal or a sharp move in only one direction. Panic Cycles can be either up or down. Watch the oscillators and the reversals to determine the best indication of the potential direction.
Inspecting the immediate trend remains bullish since November made new highs and we have exceeded that high so far this month. This is further illustrated given the fact that last month also closed higher. So far, this is an outside reversal to the upside, which is a significant move. . On the weekly level, last month was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently.
While the market made a new low last month, our energy models turned up. This warns we may be preparing to rally. Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 5 weeks. The last weekly level low was 208379, which formed during the week of October 31st. The last high on the weekly level was 225980, which was created during the week of December 5th. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 9 months. The last monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February. The last high on the monthly level was 221410, which was created during November.
