Replies to post #13712 on The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[OakesCS]

i think your examples refute the hypothesis in your previous post, i.e.

"Global Demographic Tailwind" companies will do better than US based business only in the near and mid term

2000-2002 (was really end of 2000 thru 2004) was mostly related to 9/11 and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The 2008-2010 case was the mortgage crisis. Both cases involved shocks to the US financial system. In contrast, the 1987 crisis came out of SE Asia and didnt really affect the ability of companies in the US to produce and most US consumers were completely unaffected.

The US drives the world's economy. When it slows, economies around the world get sick. When it grows, economies around the world tend to follow. I dont think you can separate GDT companies from US companies - they are frequently the same beasts and even those US companies that are not "multinational" frequently have some dependency on the GDT. Thus, the tailwind part.