Replies to post #81702 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[raja48185]

I forgot about the political pressure.

Yeah it would work like a charm when the need is urgent and the data is good.

As far as the offer is concerned, to be frank,I would not turn down either a 2:1 or 3:1

I have recovered all my investment by selling covered calls frequently - thanks to low cost of acquisition($1.50 post split for my shares - 150K and $6 post split for my wife's shares - 50K)

Participation in future growth - - not sure about that... if I will stay longer once AVXL gets bought out. I do my own research and I believe there are many gems out there that can give me better returns(for now I have sizeable position in CTRV and BCDA)

[Whiskey/Sausage]

I agree that we need 2-73 now, but, I will be very surprised to see 2-73 FDA approved and on the market to treat Alz any time before 2018. As boston mentioned, maybe it'll be able to sneak in under a sub-treatment of Alz, but I'm not sure it'll be an outright slam dunk for treatment due to 'off label' preconceptions.

I think 2017 will be a good year for indications of success, but for Anavex to actually be making money, that will be the golden goose - and I apologize for the confusion, my $10B-$50B 2yr-10yr reference was written with a lot on my mind, I I meant to more clearly state that it'll likely be 2-10years before we see $10B-$50B valuation.

Of course, partnerships, dilutions, mergers are obviously not factored in. That would be awesome though huh? 2 to 3 AVXL shares for 1 BIIB? :) I, and I imagine many of us, would retire the day of!

There should be a CTAD pop, more behind the scenes negotiations between Anavex and potential partners, then a p3 announcement and so on. I think it'll be a shorter p3 than 6 months. They wouldn't put patients on a placebo for 6 months while the other arm is on treatment - it would be unethical to let them degrade without any SOC treatment. It'll be shorter (especially if the mono-therapy shows indication of rapid results - which I think you and several others may have mentioned might be the case).

Either way, it's going to be an interesting 2017.