I agree that we need 2-73 now, but, I will be very surprised to see 2-73 FDA approved and on the market to treat Alz any time before 2018. As boston mentioned, maybe it'll be able to sneak in under a sub-treatment of Alz, but I'm not sure it'll be an outright slam dunk for treatment due to 'off label' preconceptions.
I think 2017 will be a good year for indications of success, but for Anavex to actually be making money, that will be the golden goose - and I apologize for the confusion, my $10B-$50B 2yr-10yr reference was written with a lot on my mind, I I meant to more clearly state that it'll likely be 2-10years before we see $10B-$50B valuation.
Of course, partnerships, dilutions, mergers are obviously not factored in. That would be awesome though huh? 2 to 3 AVXL shares for 1 BIIB? :) I, and I imagine many of us, would retire the day of!
There should be a CTAD pop, more behind the scenes negotiations between Anavex and potential partners, then a p3 announcement and so on. I think it'll be a shorter p3 than 6 months. They wouldn't put patients on a placebo for 6 months while the other arm is on treatment - it would be unethical to let them degrade without any SOC treatment. It'll be shorter (especially if the mono-therapy shows indication of rapid results - which I think you and several others may have mentioned might be the case).
Either way, it's going to be an interesting 2017.