Replies to post #16162 on Velocityshares 3X Long Natural Gas ETN (UGAZ)

[FinalFrontier]

Interesting. We use different indicators.

I would love to see Natgas fall below $2 like last winter. Wow - what an opportunity that would be.

[dude iligence]

blindjohn I talked in detail about the Reverse Head and shoulders along with the $3.35-$3.45 gap starting way back in Sept and don't forget the break above the 50ma/ Golden cross back in May-June. This chart use to have a $3.1 neckline, everyone can just imagine one.

Heres a few posts 6308,6015, 6227,7009. There are several more, BUT along came .47 Contango and contract expiration. Then Stockcharts put Nov contract back in the NG chart, let it expire and created the massive gap and $2.62 foreshadowing feeler 13 trading days ago. And low and behold here NG sits on and around the $2.62 level.

For the sake of analysis make an assumption that NG is a very manipulated trade everything is planned.

Here's a chart that is relevant
Jan $2.85 +1.39% forming a pennant


UGAZ 100% tracking Jan -.63 despite NG still up at $2.85, Velocity taking the Friday afternoon skim? NG closes earlier than UGAZ which can cause discrepancies.




$Natgas chart tracking Dec contract not looking as bullish



Jan has been going up while Dec has been going down. This is the start of the anticipation that its gonna be a cold winter.


Contango increasing .16 on Thurs, Friday .23. If Jan contract continues higher next week UGAZ should go with it regardless of what Dec does. After all Dec is old news in the world of UGAZ. Contract expires on mon 28. If contango continues to climb we have till about Weds the 23rd for a rally. Then Contango will start to take away from UGAZ and give to DGAZ for every given price of NG. Who knows what stockcharts will do in regards to when they flip the chart to Jan. They don't follow their own policy of dec/increasing vol. Whatever they do use it as a clue as to which way NG is going to go.

Best case senario early next week NG goes down punches the 200ma gives us a $2.42-$2.47 buying range then starts to move higher as wx turns colder. Last yr I was Jetsking this late but its a bit cold, perhaps Weds with a wetsuit. Overall its colder here than last fall.