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11/09/16 6:00 AM

#260777 RE: F6 #260775

Says Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

Who got burried?
Saudi Barbaria
Goldman Jerks
Syrian Jihadis aka "rebels"
Academic Economists w/PseudoNobel
NYT & other bullshit venues.


The Intellectual Yet Idiot


What we have been seeing worldwide, from India to the UK to the US, is the rebellion against the inner circle of no-skin-in-the-game policymaking “clerks” and journalists-insiders, that class of paternalistic semi-intellectual experts with some Ivy league, Oxford-Cambridge, or similar label-driven education who are telling the rest of us 1) what to do, 2) what to eat, 3) how to speak, 4) how to think… and 5) who to vote for.

But the problem is the one-eyed following the blind: these self-described members of the “intelligentsia” can’t find a coconut in Coconut Island, meaning they aren’t intelligent enough to define intelligence hence fall into circularities?—?but their main skill is capacity to pass exams written by people like them. With psychology papers replicating less than 40%, dietary advice reversing after 30 years of fatphobia, macroeconomic analysis working worse than astrology, the appointment of Bernanke who was less than clueless of the risks, and pharmaceutical trials replicating at best only 1/3 of the time, people are perfectly entitled to rely on their own ancestral instinct and listen to their grandmothers (or Montaigne and such filtered classical knowledge) with a better track record than these policymaking goons.

Indeed one can see that these academico-bureaucrats who feel entitled to run our lives aren’t even rigorous, whether in medical statistics or policymaking. They cant tell science from scientism?—?in fact in their eyes scientism looks more scientific than real science. (For instance it is trivial to show the following: much of what the Cass-Sunstein-Richard Thaler types?—?those who want to “nudge” us into some behavior?—?much of what they would classify as “rational” or “irrational” (or some such categories indicating deviation from a desired or prescribed protocol) comes from their misunderstanding of probability theory and cosmetic use of first-order models.) They are also prone to mistake the ensemble for the linear aggregation of its components as we saw in the chapter extending the minority rule.


The Intellectual Yet Idiot is a production of modernity hence has been accelerating since the mid twentieth century, to reach its local supremum today, along with the broad category of people without skin-in-the-game who have been invading many walks of life. Why? Simply, in most countries, the government’s role is between five and ten times what it was a century ago (expressed in percentage of GDP). The IYI seems ubiquitous in our lives but is still a small minority and is rarely seen outside specialized outlets, think tanks, the media, and universities?—?most people have proper jobs and there are not many openings for the IYI.

Beware the semi-erudite who thinks he is an erudite. He fails to naturally detect sophistry.

The IYI pathologizes others for doing things he doesn’t understand without ever realizing it is his understanding that may be limited. He thinks people should act according to their best interests and he knows their interests, particularly if they are “red necks” or English non-crisp-vowel class who voted for Brexit. When plebeians do something that makes sense to them, but not to him, the IYI uses the term “uneducated”. What we generally call participation in the political process, he calls by two distinct designations: “democracy” when it fits the IYI, and “populism” when the plebeians dare voting in a way that contradicts his preferences. While rich people believe in one tax dollar one vote, more humanistic ones in one man one vote, Monsanto in one lobbyist one vote, the IYI believes in one Ivy League degree one-vote, with some equivalence for foreign elite schools and PhDs as these are needed in the club.

https://twitter.com/nntaleb?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.28f75c8oq

fuagf

11/09/16 5:01 PM

#260872 RE: F6 #260775

Rough and scant timeline to Alex Jones blaming others for failure of Trump policy.

Trump announces policy.

Trump, Trade and Workers
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=124973814

Trump lies about everything including present state of economy.

Trump’s Vision of the Economy vs. the Actual Economy
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=125489440

Trump economic policy condemned by more economists.

370 Economists Sign Letter Urging America Not To Vote For Donald Trump
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=126241225

Trump elected after lying continually throughout campaign about all and everything.

Donald Trump's lying far more sinister than distortion of facts
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=126357878

One important question is how much of Trump's incoherent, unsustainable
and radically vitriolic, fascist-like electioneering reality show was an act.

Goldman Sachs stock is up.

Trump wants ex-Goldman partner Mnuchin to run U.S. Treasury: Fox Business
Thu Nov 3, 2016 | 2:49pm EDT
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-treasury-idUSKBN12Y25X

Could be much more of the normal, and much worse, than his Alt-Right crowd were sold.

Alex Jones keeps his poisonous conspiracy-mentality business wheels well oiled by preemptively placing blame
for any and all possible failure of Trump policy announcements even before any implementation has taken place.
.. your link .. http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=126422600

See also, yes, from John Pavlovitz

Here’s Why We Grieve Today
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=126440591

as good a statement on the situation as we will ever see.

Thanks to Susie924 for that one.

No thanks to all those of the left and center who pilloried Hillary as hard as the GOP did.