The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 4, 2016.
Gold: After making lower highs since reaching $1,377.5 on July 6 and testing support at $1,300 on three different occasions since that high, spot gold finally broke down on Tuesday, collapsing 3.3 percent.
There is solid support at $1,180, which goes back to November 2009. But the spot is seven percent away from that level – unlikely it gets tested anytime soon.
On Friday, the metal tested the 200-day moving average and closed below; GLD, the SPDR gold ETF, on the other hand, dropped all the way to $118.42 before reversing and closing up $0.08 to $119.74, above that average. The path of least resistance is up.
In the week ended Wednesday, GLD lost $50 million – not much given the sell-off on Tuesday (courtesy of ETF.com).
Predictably, non-commercials cut net longs by 15.9% – to the lowest since the record high 13 weeks ago. Medium-term risk is if these traders continue to reduce their holdings.
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