Replies to post #92041 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[rosemountbomber]

Thanks Sam. One note. From the SunTrust release:

"The criteria for early stop at the 80% target is less rigorous than the 60% interim criteria (early stop at 80% is triggered if p < 0.022), but still materially more onerous than the p < 0.05 criterion required for statistical significance. As such, we expect the DMC to recommend that REDUCE-IT continues until attainment of 100% of the target 1,612 primary events, which is estimated to occur in 2017, yielding publication of results in 2018."

What they don't make clear, is that because of all the peeks, for statistical significance at final (1,612) the results must even less than p < 0.05. Someone I believe posted the correct number but the approximation is something line p < 0.04. Now maybe that is not a big difference, but nevertheless one extra thing to think about.

[Invest83838]

Thank You Sam!

[irc203]

I will be surprised if sales do not total $140 to $146 million this year based on last years Q/Q growth rates. So far, (the first 2 quarters) AMRN sales growth rates Q/Q have been tracking slightly higher than the Q/Q growth rates of last year. It appears the third quarter is on track to do the same. I love the way the analysts of AMRN's security underwriters mimic AMRN's conservative sales guidance as if they can't see any better. It's amazing how AMRN can continue to beat sales estimates, right? ??

I will go one step further out on the tree limb and predict sales of $150 million for 2016. SunTrust and others won't go beyond hugging the base of the tree.

[BioChica]

Very Nice! Thanks.....