Replies to post #70935 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Pyrrhonian]

$2mm/month is still far too high. And anyway, the P3 has been on hold since Aug last year, so what makes you think next few Q burn will be much lower than what they spent Apr - June of this year? And here come the P2 studies (plural). And maybe involve pricey checkpoint inhibitors.

And are we still talking about HE revenue??

But I guess if you couldn't see why you should cut and run at $2, $1, $0.80 or $0.50, why would you see it now?

Your (errant) belief has trapped you.

GL

[austinmediainc]

There is also HE programm going on that will eventually bring revenues.

This was announced 3 years ago.....nothing since. I wouldn't hold your breath.

I also wouldn't put to much stock into the info arm NWBO ran, it's incomparable to older studies because of the "apparent rapid progressors"category that isn't in any other historical studies, they either are or aren't. 1 Patient that isn't but categorized as an apparent would change the data significantly. The company could clear it up by simply addressing it, but they can't so the don't and keep all of the suckers chasing that carrot.

[sentiment_stocks]

On July 4, they raised $3.7 million.

On August 23, 7 weeks later, or 49 days, at $75,510 per day, they raised $1,279,885.

So given that most recent spend rate, at $75,510 per day, that gives them 16 days, or until around September 8. And an approximate burn rate of $2.3 million - closer to what you suggest. :)

[exwannabe]

Burn rate

Of course we do not know what the rate is till the Q is over. But since you want to guess about it, let us look at past numbers to get an idea.

Operational spend (does not include financings and cap ex for stuff like Sawston)

FY 2014: $54,6M/y $4.5M/m

2015 Q1: $17.9M/q $6.0M/m
Q2: $26.9M/q $8.9M/m
Q3: $11.8M/q $3.9M/m
Q4: $22.1M/q $7.4M/m

2016 Q1: $17.6M/q $5.9M/m
Q2: $14.2M/q $4.7M/m

So you expect burn to drop to about $2M/m as of now because the trial is "moving towards completion". OK.

But the trial was moving towards completion all this year, no new patients. And the burn only dropped $1.2M/m Q1->2, and even that can be totally allocated to failing to pay bills.

Oh, I do agree they can drop the cash burn as you say. Anybody can reduce cash burn to $0. It is easy.

BTW, anybody notice the pattern that the highest spend Qs aligned with NW funding and not with trial activity?

[maverick_1]

Burn Rate: I'm in the preliminary GUESS camp of viewing currently a monthly burn rate closer to $2 mln give or take a few hundred thousand for NWBO. MAVERICK's WAYS:

Reason why?: By my nature of always expanding one's horizons vs stuck in the mud types, I looked at an impressive biotech company that is just beginning Ph2 in Immuno-oncology that recently IPO'ed Syros Pharmeuceutical (SYRS) based in a biotech mecca and having close to 45 employees vs NWBO's ~15 employees. One SHOULD recognize after lots of experience, when a company goes the IPO'ed route courtesy of their VC's they keep expenses LOW! And since SYRS is involved in the genetic end, just by that SYRS's expenses are much HIGHER than that clearly of NWBO. AND Cambridge, Mass + heavyweights(look at their backgrounds) on SYRS make it top dollar vs what I characterize as lean and mean NWBO (recall those naysayers complaining about the salaries of LP/LG etc!: UNSUBSTAINuATED(sp?) Nonsense!

Well SYRS in their latest qtr their operating expenses of $4 mln/month are LOWER than what Pyrrh is factoring in for NWBO: $5 million a month: ABSURD IMHO! because SYRS's June qtr loss was $12 mln with ~45 employees. but only domestic expenses vs NWBO's 2 continent. And Ph3 L has wound DOWN already in 2Q! Obviously this is not of course apples to apples but it has some comparability as long as one recognizes the differences which I've tried to do on a first stab basis.

Here's SYRS' recent 10Q:
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FilingID=11548077&RcvdDate=8/15/2016&CoName=SYROS%20PHARMACEUTICALS%2C%20INC.&FormType=10-Q&View=html