Replies to post #41100 on A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[Toofuzzy]

Hi Clive

That would make my trades like 10 times the size.

That would either have me sell out right quick or my buys will be 10 tmes the size and I dont have the cash for that.

I could trade 100 shares instead of 1000 i started with, but what does that do to my gains.

I could decide to sell out now with my 50% gains to build the cash you suggest. I would certainly be able to take advantage of drops then.

Maybe instead of treating it as a LD Aim program and pretending I own MORE shares maybe I should pretend I have less but hold the same amount of cash. That doesnt look like it would work either.

Maybe I am just better off to take sales as quickly as a can but keep the discipline of monthly buys.

Right now with the SVXY I own in my IRA anti vix derivatives are about 10% of my total portfolio so maybe sort of in line with what you propose. I dont want to have a higher percentage than that.

I am
Toofuzzy

[SFSecurity]

Hi Is7550, Toofuzzy, I just couldn't resist looking at this and trying another split: 10% XIV, 45% SHY and 45% SPY. Beats the two handsomely. $12,709, $14,402, $16,671

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2016&lastMonth=12&endDate=08%2F10%2F2016&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&symbol1=XIV&allocation1_1=10&allocation1_3=10&symbol2=SPY&allocation2_2=50&allocation2_3=45&symbol3=SHY&allocation3_1=90&allocation3_2=50&allocation3_3=45

I don't know how one could run the three together as though they were a single AIM so one could see the volatility and the buy/sell points. It looks like the third portfolio has more volatility and so might do even better. Look at the peak at May 31st, 2011 and the dip at September 30th 2011 as well as at July 31st 2015 and September 30th 2015.

True, you'd have to not panic as the maximum drawdown is 16.72% but the CAGR is a nice 9.59%,

If you could stand it 20% XIV, 40% SHY, and 40% SPY does even better with a CAGR of 12.03%

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2016&lastMonth=12&endDate=08%2F10%2F2016&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&symbol1=XIV&allocation1_1=10&allocation1_3=20&symbol2=SPY&allocation2_2=50&allocation2_3=40&symbol3=SHY&allocation3_1=90&allocation3_2=50&allocation3_3=40

As usual a log scale view is best.

Best,

Allen