A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[SFSecurity]

Hi Is7550, Toofuzzy, I just couldn't resist looking at this and trying another split: 10% XIV, 45% SHY and 45% SPY. Beats the two handsomely. $12,709, $14,402, $16,671

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2016&lastMonth=12&endDate=08%2F10%2F2016&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&symbol1=XIV&allocation1_1=10&allocation1_3=10&symbol2=SPY&allocation2_2=50&allocation2_3=45&symbol3=SHY&allocation3_1=90&allocation3_2=50&allocation3_3=45

I don't know how one could run the three together as though they were a single AIM so one could see the volatility and the buy/sell points. It looks like the third portfolio has more volatility and so might do even better. Look at the peak at May 31st, 2011 and the dip at September 30th 2011 as well as at July 31st 2015 and September 30th 2015.

True, you'd have to not panic as the maximum drawdown is 16.72% but the CAGR is a nice 9.59%,

If you could stand it 20% XIV, 40% SHY, and 40% SPY does even better with a CAGR of 12.03%

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2016&lastMonth=12&endDate=08%2F10%2F2016&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&symbol1=XIV&allocation1_1=10&allocation1_3=20&symbol2=SPY&allocation2_2=50&allocation2_3=40&symbol3=SHY&allocation3_1=90&allocation3_2=50&allocation3_3=40

As usual a log scale view is best.

Best,

Allen