Replies to post #68802 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[rnoutlaw21]

Maybe it's just paranoia, but I have a feeling there will be a massive attack next week by the cabal. They are all loading up.

[Cbdpotential]

A little bit of both?

[oneflew12]

basparks I don't think any of us knows that answer , they may be playing both sides of the game? We shall see, I personally believe the news will be good good enough to take us 10, 12 , dollars.if really really good we can see a partner and a $20 price tag .

[found_it]

If last November is any indication then my humble thoughts are as follows:

1. There is an 'AF' or other loser article ready to print the moment the data comes out

2. Big boys want Cheap shares for any number of reasons (pharma competitor? hedge fund games? partnership coming?...)

3. They know the science here is working, really working, and want to scare us/tap into profit-taking so we give them up as cheap as possible

Head fake games all around to get our shares...

[F1ash]

I personally think what's happening is a group of investors is setting up a scenario where they hope to benefit from a massive price swing. They don't really care which way (up or down), they just want it to be a very large move one way or the other. Short on one end with long options on the other. If news is spectacular the long option proceeds would surely eclipse any short losses. If news is tepid or disappointing expect an all out assault of FUD. I would bet the bashing SA article and AF tweets are already written waiting to see which way the wind blows.

[oldandintheway]

My thoughts:

- clinical stage biotech data reveals are a binary event, with a high percentage of fails. While I don't think there's much chance of AVXL revealing anything worse than mediocre data, market reaction is what counts to traders. Shorts could be playing routine small biotech odds.

- protection against calls. At this point the stock can only fall 7 pts and change. Calls could shoot up by 10x, who knows.


I think many have gotten rich playing short-the-biotech odds. Out of a dozen binary situations such as AVXL's (at present), there will be, what 8, 9, 10 short winners and just a few losers? If you're one of those players the killer is the AQXP or similar, and certainly calls can provide adequate protection. I, like most seem here on the board are in AVXL for the long-term potential. I'm really not that concerned with near-term market reaction as I am data quality with respect to future sales. GLTA