Replies to post #85392 on ajtj99's Market Pulse

[jdaasoc]

I am selling a building and holding the note. Buyer just this week hit me up for your 100 basis point reduction in interest rate in order to move forward with sale. 10 year bond was at 5.2% when I wrote contract.

Hard to predict if housing market will get frothy again but I wouldn't want to be short home builders just in case.

[pstuartb]

I'm reading from Tony Crescenzi today that the fed funds market is now priced for 26% odds of a hike at the Aug. 8 FOMC meeting, down from 45% yesterday.

The odds of a hike on Aug 8 were at 90% immediately after the release of the June consumer price index last Wednesday.

The market is priced for 31% odds of a hike at the Sept. 20 FOMC meeting, down from 50% yesterday and 100% last Wednesday.

Weaker than expected GDP, higher prices, lower cap ex = the indexes gap up singing the fed is done. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me, fool me a dozen times in a row with the same lame fed-is-done schtick and call it the stock market...g