Replies to post #85396 on ajtj99's Market Pulse

[chainik]

An interesting twist is a possibility of a rate CUT as soon as in September

http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/policy/fedfunds/index.cfm

These numbers are actually obtained not from the Fed Funds Futures, but from the options on these futures (that's why they are able to extract probabilities of three outcomes for Sept). Don't know how reliable this approach is, but conventional wisdom says that Fed Fund Futures alone are not very good at predicting turning points in rate hikes/cuts.

I still think that there is a good chance of a bs rally when the Fed is done with the hikes :)