Replies to post #8703 on Addax Petroleum (fka AXC)

[tryoty]

Maybe, maybe not. If they sell the asset for how ever 100's of millions it is worth and we are stuck looking at a cash rich company with madmen in control of the bank accounts the stock might not react well at all.

Then again, if the put $500M in the bank and the market cap refuses to recognize it I suppose a hostile takeover could get us our due.

After tens years of spiraling downward I just want this over with a solid buyout, but I do mean solid. I look at it this way... if this well is a success... estimated and 66M barrels... and it derisks the rest of the block. My math goes like this:

- Total block estimate: 662M barrels

- Assume 50% success rate, 331M barrels

- Assume 50% recoverable, 165M barrels

- ERHC's share (35%), so 57M barrels * $9 per barrel, or $521M market cap

- Assume 45M shares out, so roughly $11.50 per share

Anything in that range and I'll gladly walk away.