Maybe, maybe not. If they sell the asset for how ever 100's of millions it is worth and we are stuck looking at a cash rich company with madmen in control of the bank accounts the stock might not react well at all.
Then again, if the put $500M in the bank and the market cap refuses to recognize it I suppose a hostile takeover could get us our due.
After tens years of spiraling downward I just want this over with a solid buyout, but I do mean solid. I look at it this way... if this well is a success... estimated and 66M barrels... and it derisks the rest of the block. My math goes like this:
- Total block estimate: 662M barrels
- Assume 50% success rate, 331M barrels
- Assume 50% recoverable, 165M barrels
- ERHC's share (35%), so 57M barrels * $9 per barrel, or $521M market cap
- Assume 45M shares out, so roughly $11.50 per share
Anything in that range and I'll gladly walk away.
People maintain anonymity for a reason and it is rarely noble.
