Replies to post #27224 on Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[Wild-bill]

Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 05/27 2016 EOD

I believe we are doing a very short-term consolidation right now. Still expecting no sudden or big moves near-term. Volume is low enough that we may be nearing a change though. I suspect, due to the strength of support seen at $1.53, that exiting consolidation will be to the up-side. If not, we have several nearby potential supports below.

There were no pre-market trades.

09:30-10:04 opened the day with a 1,622 sell for $1.53 and 78 shares bought @ $1.56, did 9:31's 6.8K $1.53/4, 9:34's 2K $1.54/5, 9:35's 1.5K $1.5340, 9:38's 500 $1.53, 9:39-:40's ~13.6K $1.54->$1.53->$1.51, and then came 9:41-10:03's mostly very low/no-volume $1.51/3 and 10:04's 101 $1.52 ended the period.

10:05-10:24, after twelve no-trade minutes, began stepping up with 10:17-:18's ~5.2K $1.53->$1.54, 10:21's 323 $1.54/5, and 10:24's 10.5K $1.55->$1.57 ended the period.

10:25-15:18, after a no-trades minute, began a slow low/no-volume sag lower on 10:26's 107 $1.57 and 10:27-:34's no trades began very low/no-volume $1.55/7 through 10:53. At 10:54 b/a was 3.4K:5.9K $1.54/6 and initially most trades went @ $1.55 and switched to $1.54/5 on 11:15's ~2.5K $1.54. B/a became 1.1K:~900 $1.54/5, at 11:34 became b/a ~2.6K:1K $1.54/6 (& 94 $1.55), and 11:39 it was 10.3K:300 $1.55/6. Range was interrupted by 11:43's 194 $1.57 and 14:11's 675 $1.54. 11:56 switched trade range to $1.55/6. Volume was interrupted by 12:11's ~10.2K $1.55/6 13:06's 6K $1.55/6 and 14:07's ~8.9K $1.55. 12:24 b/a was 1.9K:500 $1.55/6. At 13:06 b/a was 7.2K:5.5K $1.55/6, 13:25 7.7K:2.3K $1.55/6, 13:58 6.1K:~4.2K $1.55/6, 15:07 4.7K:1.9K $1.54/5. The period ended on 15:18's 200 $1.55.

15:19-15:36, after five no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.54/5 on 15:23's 300 $1.54 (b/a became 2K:3.4K $1.54/5) but moved to higher volume and then ended the period on 15:36's ~11.7K $1.54/5.

15:37-18:56 (includes AH), after two no-trades minutes, began the EOD volatility, in volume anyway, on medium and then low volume, in the $1.55/6 range with a beginning b/a 900:8.7K. It kicked off on 15:39's 5K $1.56 and ended the market hours and day on 16:00's 525 (closing trade 225 and 300 more) $1.55.

There were three AH buys at 18:56, 200 x 2, 100 x 1, for $1.53.

Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 8 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 50,081, 31.76% of day's volume, with a $1.5548 VWAP. Today's larger trades were more normal in both the percentage of day's volume, closer to "normal", and in that the VWAP was below the day's $1.5483 VWAP.

 Ending  Period  Period  Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End 
 Period  Volume     Low    High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~% 
  10:04   31542 $1.5100 $1.5489    $48,145.80 $1.5264 20.00% 24.05% 
  10:24   15800 $1.5340 $1.5700    $24,578.00 $1.5556 10.02% 41.00% Incl 10:17 $1.5340 5,000 10:24 $1.5700 8,100 
  15:18   69095 $1.5400 $1.5700   $107,318.73 $1.5532 43.82% 39.84% Incl 12:11 $1.5501 8,900 12:26 $1.5500 8,081 
  15:36   12180 $1.5400 $1.5500    $18,866.68 $1.5490  7.72% 41.76% 
  18:56   26870 $1.5300 $1.5600    $41,823.85 $1.5565 17.04% 44.91% Incl 15:39 $1.5570 5,000 15:41 $1.5593 5,000 
                                                                         15:48 $1.5550 5,000 15:49 $1.5599 5,000

On the traditional TA front, movements were:

          __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_ 
 Today     -1.29%  -1.31%  -1.88%   0.00% -16.77% 
 Prior     -4.32%   2.00%  -3.03%   0.00% -70.13%

It's worth noting the stability seen here over the last few days. The close has been $1.55 four of the last five days. The low the last four days has been $1.50-$1.53. This has been on volume that reduced the last three days since the "pop" to ~1.5MM on 5/24.

My take is we are doing a short-term consolidation. Other evidence of that follows in both conventional and my unconventional TA.

On my minimal chart the most important thing, I think, is that the support at $1.53 has been honored five consecutive days even though two of the last four days made intra-day penetrations. The falling highs, and generally higher lows suggest short-term consolidation, as does the reducing volume. We also have two trend lines below (rising green and orange lines) that suggest support may be available if any move lower is attempted. Today these appear to be ~$1.48 and $1.43.

An improvement, IMO, is that the lower high ceased "pushing" my experimental 13-period Bollinger's upper limit while upper and lower limit continue to rise, meaning a reversion to the mid-point should result in a less severe price drop if a move lower should come. That support seems more likely because the rising orange line support is around the Bollinger mid-point.

On my one-year chart trading is still above the long-term descending support.

The oscillators I watch, mixed yesterday with a slight bias towards more weakening, all weakened marginally. Everything is still above neutral.

The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3411 and $1.6250 ($1.3380 and $1.6174 yesterday) have stopped converging and are beginning to diverge again as the upper limit rises more quickly than does the lower limit. Moving the mid-point up will offer some help down the road I think.

All in, believing we are consolidating, it's hard to draw strong indications from the conventional TA. In this condition it's common to have oscillators be in agreement as slightly negative while such as volume, Bollingers, ... suggest weakness are likely to abate. This may confirmed when the oscillators become mixed again and then rotate to being in agreement on slightly positive. Factoring in the rising potential supports of the minimal chart, the Bollinger band movement, ... The best I come with ATM is our downside seems limited and our upside to the $1.69 pause (or possibly strong resistance), is not blocked by any apparent technical indicators.



Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, but the short percentage is near (and may be within if the 15.5% correction is erroneous) my desired range (needs re-check) of ~35%-~45%. Another good indication is that the buy percentage moved towards the ~50% range I believe is needed for sustainable appreciation. I've noticed recently (over many months) that we can get short-term rises when we get around 49%.

The spread continues to narrow, an effect suggesting consolidation, and is at a level such that it does not suggest near-term weakness.

VWAP movement added another negative, albeit quite small, to our trend, giving us now thirteen negative moves in the last twenty readings and seven positives. Being such a small move, as with yesterday I don't think we can read much into it. I think it suggests we are consolidating, especially when we start stringing small moves together.

All in, nothing suggesting big negative move nor positive moves.

As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.

Bill