Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 05/31 2016 EOD
Mildly short-term bullish but my unconventional stuff has some negative signs.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:16 opened the day on a 1,259 sell for $1.55, and with buys of 51 @ $1.5837, 20 @ $1.5999, 1 @ $1.60, 3K @ $1.5999, 3K @ $1.5960. 9:40's 10K $1.57->$1.5899 began 9:41-:55's low/no-volume $1.57/8, 9:56's 100 $1.59, 9:58-10:09's very low/no-volume $1.57/8 (interrupted by 10:07's $1.5572/$1.56), 10:14-:16's mostly low/no-volume $1.58/9, and 10:16's 100 $1.58 ended the period.
10:17-10:43, after two no-trades minutes, began mostly low/no-volume $1.58/9 on 10:19's ~6.2K $1.5850->$1.5990->$1.5980, and 10:43's 100 $1.58 ended the period.
10:44-11:24 did 10:44's ~16.9K $1.58->$1.57 drop, and 10:45-:59's mostly low/no-volume, mixed with some medium minutes, $1.57/8. Then began a very low/no-volume slow small rise hitting 11:00's 100 $1.59, and 11:24's 100 $1.60 to end the period.
11:25-13:02, after three no-trades minutes, began a very low/no-volume $1.59/60 on 11:28's 100 $1.5950. Volume was interrupted by 12:33's 8.5K $1.59/60, 12:45's ~7K $1.59/60, 12:55's ~5.5K $1.59/60 and 12:58's 6K $1.59. 13:02's 100 $1.59 ended the period.
13:03-13:27, after 10 no-trades minutes, began a mostly low/no-volume, and some medium volume minutes, decline after doing 13:13's 376 $1.58/$1.5801a and 13:15-:16's ~10.8K $1.58, hitting 13:23's 4K $1.57, and 13:27's 180 $1.5613 to end the period.
13:28-13:55, after three no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.56/7 on 13:31's ~8.7K $1.56 and ended the period on 13:54-:55's ~2.8K $1.56/$1.57.
13:56-14:39, after nine no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.57/8 (with b/a moved to 11.1K:300 $1.57/8) on 14:04's 229 $1.57/8). 12:21 had b/a ~12.6K:1.5K $1.57/9. 14:39's ~15.9K $1.57/$1.5750 ended the period.
14:40-15:44, after two no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.56/7 on 14:42's ~3.3K $1.56/7. Activity was interrupted by 15:05's ~1.5K $.155/6. 15:44's ~5.4K $1.5650/$1.57 ended the period.
15:45-16:00, after one no-trades minute, began EOD volatility on 15:46's ~15.4K $1.5799->$1.60->$1.5850, did 15:48's 1.8K $1.58, 15:50's 100 100 $1.57, 15:51's 200 $1.58, 15:55-:59's ~9.6K $1.57/7, and ended the period and day on 16:00's 1,714 sell for $1.56.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 15 larger trades (>=5K & 5 4K+) totaling 98,554, 38.50% of day's volume, with a $1.5783 VWAP. For today's volume, these are a larger number of trades and a higher percentage than normal. Considering the "flatness" of the day's activity and a VWAP slightly below the day's VWAP of $1.5805 (+~2%), I think this suggests some "smarter" traders/investors are taking an interest here. Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:16 48274 $1.5500 $1.5999 $76,270.09 $1.5799 18.86% 69.67% Incl 09:40 $1.5800 4,700 09:43 $1.5800 4,650
09:54 $1.5701 5,800
10:43 26331 $1.5800 $1.6000 $41,944.62 $1.5930 10.29% 60.52% Incl 10:30 $1.6000 10,000
11:24 40241 $1.5700 $1.6000 $63,334.14 $1.5739 15.72% 52.01% Incl 10:44 $1.5700 4,400 10,500 10:49 5,300
10:57 $1.5701 4,959
13:02 46095 $1.5800 $1.6000 $73,435.73 $1.5931 18.01% 49.90% Incl 12:45 $1.5910 7,000 12:58 $1.5870 6,000
13:27 16322 $1.5613 $1.5801 $25,737.54 $1.5769 6.38% 46.94% Incl 13:16 $1.5800 4,451
13:55 12265 $1.5600 $1.5700 $19,160.17 $1.5622 4.79% 44.21% Incl 13:31 $1.5600 8,663
14:39 17350 $1.5700 $1.5800 $27,267.70 $1.5716 6.78% 41.73% Incl 14:39 $1.5700 7,725 $1.5725 7,725
15:44 15883 $1.5500 $1.5700 $24,862.60 $1.5654 6.20% 41.55%
16:00 28707 $1.5600 $1.6000 $45,434.78 $1.5827 11.21% 38.91% Incl 15:46 $1.6000 6,681
On the traditional TA front, movements were: __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 1.31% 2.65% 1.91% 0.65% 62.35%
Prior -1.29% -1.31% -1.88% 0.00% -16.77%
Today's movements seem to support the above "suggests some "smarter" traders/investors are taking an interest here".
On my minimal chart the days range stayed above the known $1.53 support on a higher low and high on rising volume. Looking at the last four days, when we had three down days before today, we also had a "cupping" volume pattern in which volume feel on the down days and then today began a rise in volume. Another such day and we have another suggestion of bullishness as the increasing volume suggests strengthening upward momentum.
Even if we don't get it, right now the risk looks good for taking a long position as the former rising support (lower rising orange line) sits ~$1.49/$11.50 today, which is where we could encounter a potential reversal. The price pattern, considering highs and lows, is also "cupping", making a semi-rounding bottom, also suggesting some upward pressure. Since our price range has moved back into my 13-period experimental Bollinger band we also have stopped "pushing" the upper limit, which suggests reduced downward pressure going forward. With a rising midpoint any downward pressure should be quite moderate.
On my one-year chart the last time I mentioned the SMA's, they were going the wrong direction. That has now reversed and the 10, 20 and 50 day averages are rising and should cross above the 50-day if our close tomorrow remains above $1.43 and $1.52, for the 10 and 20-day averages respectively. If we then hold flat, we get a few more days of rise on the 10-day and and then 7 days or so on the 20-day, with a flattening thereafter. I don't expect us to just stay in range yet, but as we approach the quarterly and EOY report there should be a fair amount of movement if our action is not predominately MMs and short-term traders "churning" the market for fun and profit.
The oscillators I watch, which yesterday all weakened marginally but had everything still above neutral, went mixed today, suggesting we may be entering a turn. Improvements occurred in RSI, Williams %R, MFI (untrusted by me), and ADX-related. Deterioration was seen in accumulation/distribution, momentum (likely volume related), and full stochastic. All are still above neutral and nothing is "overbought".
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3388 and $1.6350 ($1.3411 and $1.6250 yesterday) continues with a rising mid-point even though the lower limit is trying to flatten. The mid-point now is quite near the potential rising support (rising orange line), suggesting some support if we do move that way.
All in, I'm more constructive today, although it's not a run-away train in nature. It just looks like we are ending the move lower and making a turn to go either sideways or start a leg up.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, and short percentage is high, even allowing for the possibility of my adjustment being erroneous. Further, buy percentage moved further from the range needed for sustained appreciation. Looking at the pattern of that latter item I think it's just short-term trader and MM churn though rather than suggesting a near-term strong down trend. It does suggest some possible near-term weakness though.
The spread is now at a level suggesting consolidation and/or a reversal is close. OOPS! It could be suggesting a continuation of a down trend, but combined with other things I don't think it's a big move down if it comes.
VWAP movement added another positive, and not real small, to our trend, giving us now thirteen negative moves in the last twenty readings and eight positives. Unlike yesterday I don't think it continues to suggest we are consolidating, short-term. Combined with the conventional TA above, especially rising volume on an up day, I suspect a short-leg up is developing.
All in, I lean to the positive side, although not as strongly as if short and buy percentages were better behaved.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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