I think there is heavy shorting. But there has also been large fundamental risk - unknown about what's happening with the ph 3 which is absolutely vital to our success at getting the pps back up to a reasonable level, plus financial risk of how much dilution we face if the ph 3 trial either continues to remain in limbo indefinitely vs getting terminated for effectiveness one way or another, i.e. turned into AA or even simply going back 'on' enrollment which is not best case but at least ends the FUD that it's DOA.
It's simple fact that the Cognate MFN doubles the dilution and hence the dilution risk, if NWBO has to issue almost 1-1 shares and warrants to Cognate for every share of dilution they face while forced to sell shares at under $1. I believe that we will hear within 1-3 weeks that Cognate will agree to give up the extra shares so that NWBO can get into compliance with Nasdaq. If that happens it will remove a ton of the dilution risk as well as be a very big sign of good faith on the part of Cognate/LP. In that case, that news alone ought to be good to double or triple the stock price. But if the ph3 cloud is still overhanging, the market might not even give us much for what will really be a huge positive. But in the meantime there is no denying that the dilution math contributes hugely to the pps decline that began with a vengence with the first financing below $4, i.e. the level that kicks off Cognate MFN adjustment.
If we get removal of MFN plus clear positive continuation of the ph 3 trial enrollment, I expect very sudden recovery to $3-4, and another double when ph 2 combination trials with big pharma products are confirmed. This is either a continuing train wreck or a powder keg ready to blow to the upside.
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