Replies to post #80261 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[couldbebetter]

Thank you for posting. They always seem very conservative in their assumptions. I still believe management believes that they have good odds for an early halt for efficacy. The science that you present so well argues strongly for an early halt. Regardless, getting doctors to prescribe and insurance companies to reimburse will be major challenges. China is a huge potential market, hopefully, Vascepa will be approved there sooner rather than later. (Wish we had a better idea as to when.) Should there be an early halt for efficacy I wonder what management will do, go it alone, partner, or sell the company.

[staccani]

Thanks Sam, from a quick look, whilst its is good they resumed coverage, the result they come up with are based on faulty basic information and very conservative and inconsistent assumptions.

First of all the basic target price of $3.5 is based on REDUCE IT Success (they estimate a 60% probability of success after a continue at interim) but then they adjust the cash flow discounting it at 75% (effectively giving a 25% chance of success).
Then they estimate the peak sales in Dysplidemia segment in $2.5B in 2030, assuming a potential market of High Trigs is 37M people in US, where in fact the patients with TG's above 150 are more than 70M (I think they are making confusion between the Anchor and the REDUCE IT indication).
Then they say that only 10M of them are on statin. We know from separate statistics that there are 32M people on statins in the US, most of them will also have mixed dysplidemia.
Finally they assume a 6.5% penetration rate, I guess that'll depend also on RRR from Reduce IT. If the RRR is anywhere near the 30-40% we are estimating, there is no way we will have a only 6.5% market penetration, since the statin RRR would be more than doubled.
Finally they seem to forget the RoW, ie the other 170M people on statins in the rest of the world, of which at least 30-50% will have also TG above 150, ie an additional potential market of another 50-85M patients.
And I could continue.. but not having much time now..