Replies to post #79999 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[HDGabor]

S-

Thanks.

"We expect Amarin to showcase its REDUCE-IT trial design in a peer-reviewed scientific journal over the next few months. ...prior to the Sept./Oct. interim efficacy analysis" - ST

"Under this now publicly announced event timetable, assumptions can be made on the two factors at play here: if one assumes that the estimated relative risk reduction is actually below 15% (in which case, the study may not be powered to detect an effect), then that would require the placebo event rate to be not just lower than 5.2%, but starkly lower (at the level of ~4.7%). From our prior review of diabetes literature, we find it unlikely (but plausible) for the placebo event rates for extended MACE events to be that low: across 29 diabetes outcome trials for just the core MACE endpoint (without coronary revascularization and hospitalization for unstable angina, the extended MACE endpoint used in REDUCE-IT), with baseline CVD was 5.19% (Am Heart J 2011;161:210-219)" - HCW

Best,
G

[staccani]

Thanks to you Sam.
It is evident that these analysts, in order to come up with a TP close enough to current PPS ($6 and $10 respectively) they have to assume very low revenue (even in case of RiT success); they are too afraid to sound silly otherwise.
For instance in 2022 (3-4 years after the likely RiT sNDA, they are showing $700-$800M in annual revenue, ie ca 300K annual patients...
How does it compare to a potential addressable market of ca 70M patients in US only (32M of which are already on statins) and probably 200M+ potential patients worldwide? IMO if RiT is successful this will more look like many millions patients a year (and AMR seems to think likewise as they mention in their conf calls ), not 300K patients/year

[Whalatane]

Sam thx for those reports

Your weekly numbers will key going forward .
Thx for posting them

Kiwi