Replies to post #79589 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Mochachip]

I still say wait for interim results, which would be at the latest October. If DMC recommends continuing then raise money immediately. As Sam pointed out from the 10k:

The Company believes its cash and cash equivalents will be sufficient to fund its projected operations for at least the next twelve months. Depending on the level of cash generated from operations, additional capital may be required to sustain operations.

5 months from now should be enough time to notice the 1st Amendment growth in scripts (if there is one).

[sblfe]

Correct me if I'm wrong but the company should be just fine with respect to cash flow based on the numbers management has thrown out at us.

-SGA is expected to be flat w/ last year at 100 mil (on the PR)
-R&D is expected to be 30-40 mil (on the PR)
-Revenue is expected between 105-120mil (on the PR)

Keep in mind those estimates are for the year and the cost for sga and r&d is not linear.

So essentially they are saying 100 (sga) + 40 (high end of r&d) = 140 mil.

On the revenue side, you are talking 105 (using low end of expectations that essentially is saying they will not grow scripts since we are at 25mil this quarter already). Using their margin of 73% the net is 76.65 mil.

76.6 (net sales) - 140 (SGA & r&d)= -63.35mil

They started off year w/ 106.9 mil in cash so u net that and you have 43.5 mil left at the end of the year. Now they expect to be cash flow positive from operations at year end so all you have is the reduce-it expense. Is 43 mil to finish enough to finish RI? Keep in mind these are back of the envelop numbers that are very conservative. I've assumed basically no script growth from Q1. Assuming they grow scripts at same pace as last year in absolute terms, they will see 120mil in rev about 86mil net or cash burn of 53 mil leaving them over 50 mil. And who thinks they won't grow earnings throughout 2017? The simple answer is that so long as they grow scripts, there is zero chance they go broke before the completion of Reduce-it sans any unforeseen expense. Can anyone dispute this? all the numbers I got from the press release...

Also, those concerned about q1, the revs in last two q1 both also were less than q4 in previous quarter due to year end stuff. Same applies for the higher expenses in both r&d and sga in the first quarter.