The screening halt has not lifted -- and I'm inclined to believe that too much time has gone by, and thus it won't be -- and it should have been by now IMHO. But since it hasn't been then my view is that a regulatory "no lift" decision has been made already and NW Bio is working to overturn it. I see that the silence will continue for as long as NW Bio can keep the Regulatory decision from becoming "official". My GUESS is that it they are now at mediation stage, which is where it will remain for many months to come. And if I'm correct, time may be on the shorts side for the here and now and that will be all they need to walk this down to cover at bargain basement pricing -- if covering is their intention.
Prins made a statement about waiting for patients to accrue, and I took his comment to mean that additional screening may not be necessary. While at the same time I reviewed it as confirmation that at least the study will not be stopped. The scientist are simply going to be waiting for events to accrue, and investors need to wait as well. And so I agree with Flip in that the study has enough patients enrolled to be allowed to continue to the end, even if screening does not resume (I believe it was Flip that said that.). However, if long-term survival has been promising then it may be a while for Phase III to reach 248 events. In the end, the wait time is also going to be dependent upon where the enrollment count stands at. The closer to 348, the better for it is for speeding event accrual. Keep in mind that they were still enrolling a bulk of patients up until August 2015, so there still may have a good year+ to go. So in that respect, if unblinding the study is a while off, that will mean many capital raises between now and then given their high run rate. If the market does not receive good news soon, the stock price and market cap picture may become bleak and blurry. For example, a $3 stock price in a year from now could end up being the equivalent to previous 2015 highs. I hope that is not the case, but the truth is we don't know. I would imagine that it is going to depend on how the next few capital raises play out -- where the share count will be when all is said and done -- that will ultimately determine the risks/reward even when thinking through the effects of a "successful" Phase III trial will have on the stock price and its respective market cap. News in the short term, before the next capital raise, can change who has the upper hand, of course. But for now, I see more risk on the long side. My $.02.
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