Replies to post #75615 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[rafunrafun]

Honestly I have no clue how to calculate it but I don't think it's that simple. I spoke to several people but I could not understand their explanation. If I'm wrong, someone please correct me - HD?

Also, you're using 20,000, that's if 967 occurred on Feb 25.

[jessellivermore]

For AMRN and Raf..

FYI... raf you are correct on your surmise re: AMRNinvest...If the 976th event occurred at 20,000 pt years, then the composite rate would be 4.8%, but we have no information that suggests that is the case..The best guestiment is the placebo rate is about 5.5% (it's probably higher) and the composite rate is near 4.4%. I believe there are others on the board who think in a like manner.

Though there is some uncertainty, because events can not be predicted on an hourly or daily basis..(events are not being produced on an assembly line),
It is unlikely company guidance would have included the first half of 2016 if they were fairly certain the interim event would occur in Feb or March. It has been my consistent observation that biotech predictions of event occurrence seldom if ever come early, but do sometimes come after the predicted date.. In biotech land time is the natural enemy of PPS, but in this case it is our ally.

":>) JL