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Replies to post #57018 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)
03/16/16 1:32 PM
Steven Giardino, Contributor
Comments (548) |Following |Send Message
This was posted, but contained a few minor expletives. It contains some real work and great points, so I thought I'd clean it up and repost:
[start quote:]
In your hard-hitting exposé, you list nine authors and imply most or all of them don’t exist as real people. You state right from the beginning that you will show “that many of the authors who have written on Northwest are using fake identities and fake credentials. They pretend to be biologists, other scientists or fund managers. In fact, they are just paid writers.”
A few do use a pseudonym; however, they aren’t pretending to be an entirely different person. While you state that you have “circled 5 fake identities at the top of the table”, you only provide proof that one of these authors might not be who he says he is (Louis Dematteis). And while that’s all very interesting, Dematteis has nothing to do with NWBO’s recent rise in stock price. I can only find one article (written 3 years ago in February 2012) where he includes a paragraph on NWBO, and tells the readership regarding NWBO to “Test the depth of the water with one foot.” (seekingalpha.co... )
That’s hardly a ringing endorsement, and if NWBO paid for that line, I’d ask for my money back.
In your “SECTION III: The use of multiple fabricated bios and fake names” you indicated that a total of 38 articles were written by these “fake” identities - including Smith on Stocks, who I guess, is fake too, even though his bio states he is Larry Smith? You then write, “In total, these fake authors alone wrote more than 60 articles on MDM clients, 66 articles on Northwest Bio alone.” I’m still trying to figure out that math. I don’t see how your “fake” authors with “ties to MDM” can write 60 total articles on MDM clients (including NWBO), and out of that 60, 66 are on NWBO alone.
So let’s go over those 8 writers you listed:
1. Smith on Stocks
Smith has responded to you and is perfectly capable of refuting you on his own. One should note, however, that out of the 15 articles Smith has written on NWBO, 5 have been written simply to debunk the latest Adam Feuerstein article against NWBO. Adam has written 16 such pieces. If someone is paying all these authors you refer to, who is paying Adam?
Let’s take the others:
2. Ryan’s View - 1 article - October 2012
A pseudonym - found one article (removed) - not 5 - written Oct 25, 2012
3. John Eastman - 1 article - May 2012
A real person - founder of Redfish
4. Austrolib - 1 article - November 2012
5. Andreas Spiro - 2 articles - September 2012, December 9, 2013
Real person? Unknown - lives in Cyprus (you live in Bejing - are you real?)
6. Alberto Savrieno - 2 articles - October 2012, November 2013
Richard Richter - 1 article - December 2012 (removed)
7. Suresh Gupta - 0 articles
8. Louis dematteis - 1 articles (February 2012)
Total articles by people other than Smith: 7
Total articles written in 2014 (other than those by Smith): 0
Total articles written in 2013 (other than those by Smith): 2
November 27, 2013 - opening stock price: $4.90, high: $4.90, close: $ 4.67 (article didn’t help the price of the stock - it went down)
December 9, 2013 - opening stock price: $4.13, high: $4.44, close: $4.40 (stock price jumped a little - but by December 10, the stock closed at... drum roll... $4.13).
Total articles written in 2012 (other than those by Smith): 7
I can assure you, the remaining seven articles from “fake” authors from 2012 did not effect the price of NWBO stock anytime in 2014.
Below is a breakdown of the articles and the number of articles you cite and the number I found. Now perhaps all the other articles have been removed and all trace of them on Google has as well, but I’m thinking not. It’s much easier for a short such as yourself to just say that so many articles were written on NWBO by these “fakes” - but you don’t exactly back that up with any links.
Smith on Stocks 15 articles
Ryan’s View 5
(I can find one named - but content has been removed)
http://seekingalpha.co...
Published October 25, 2012)
John Eastman 5 - real person (one article from May 2012))
(founder of Redfish)
http://bit.ly/1qG1YTS
Austrolib 4 (1 article from November 21, 2012)
http://seekingalpha.co...
Therapeutic Cancer Vaccines: From The Underwhelming To The Exciting
Covers Provenge, Stimuvax, OncoVex, DCVax-L and Direct
“DCVax-L and DCVax-Direct
If you've been following the pattern of this article up to now, we've been progressing from the successful letdowns (Provenge) up the ladder to the most promising in the pipeline. Stimuvax beats out Provenge 13.3 to 4.1 in life extension, and OncoVEX beats out Stimuvax by actually eliminating terminal cancer in 8 out of 50 cases. But if DCVax-L and especially DCVax-Direct are successful, they will go much farther than that.
Developed by microcap Northwest Biotherapeutics (NWBO), DCVax-L and Direct are both immune system priming vaccines. DCVax-L is designed for brain cancer patients after a tumor has been removed in order to prevent recurrence, injected subcutaneously. DCVax-Direct is designed for inoperable tumors anywhere in the body, injected directly into the tumor (hence Direct). The clinical data on DCVax- L are as follows. The survival rate is 33.8 months and continuing. 9 of 19 patients treated are still alive and most have no evidence of tumor recurrence. Four have survived beyond 45 months since treatment.
DCVax-Direct is one of the most exciting developments in cancer vaccines in my opinion, because unlike any of its competitors, it is designed to treat all cancers anywhere in the body at any stage. The problem though is that NW Bio has $111,000 in cash on hand and has accumulated $288M in losses (page 3) since inception in 1996. They are riddled with debt notes to creditors that are often paid in stock, which means dilution. Basically, NWBO will go through ups and downs for no apparent reason other than a loan being called in. But if you like DCVax's chances and its promise, it's a buy and ignore.
DCVax-Direct trials are just getting started, with NW Bio announcing collaboration with Sara Cannon Research in the UK. Pre-clinical animal studies have shown regression in tumors injected as well in tumors on the opposite side of the body, indicating immune response and memory.”
Andreas Spiro 3 (found 2 articles)
Written on “The Street”
http://bit.ly/1qG1YTV
1. December 2013
An In-Depth Look At 3 Companies Fighting GBM Brain Cancer - Agen, IMUC and NWBO
“All three treatments are showing encouraging signs right now, and in the very hopeful event that all three are actually approved, there will be a veritable arsenal of safe, low side effect treatments against GBM that doctors could choose from. Northwest's DCVax-Direct is the wild card, which if effective, would apply to all solid tumor cancers operable or not, and not just GBM.”
http://seekingalpha.co...
2.
What Do Ron Paul, Northwest Biotherapeutics, And Novartis Have In Common?
September 2012
Conclusion
“For now, I suppose, we can only place our bets on companies that have the best shot at pleasing the bureaucrats, and leave terminally ill patients high and dry. NW Bio and Novartis look promising. Hopefully they will both save thousands of lives in the near future. If only the FDA will let them.”
http://seekingalpha.co...
Alberto Savrieno 3 (2 articles)
1.
2 Lessons Northwest Biotherapeutic’s Price Move Can Teach Us: Price Discovery and Google Alerts
(November 27, 2013)
http://seekingalpha.co...
This is the gist of his analysis on NWBO:
“As we all know, nothing has changed regarding NWBO fundamentally speaking. The only thing that has changed is that a lot more people know about it now thanks to Fox News. The market clearing price of NWBO Development Stage (indeed any security at any stage) is the price at which the amount of sellers and buyers are the same. That price can change for two reasons. Either something fundamentally changes about the company and existing buyers and sellers change the price at which they are willing to exchange it, or more buyers (or sellers) enter the market suddenly for external reasons....
The basic lesson is this. When liquidity is very low, price is unstable. In order for price discovery to happen, you need to be able to determine what all potential buyers and sellers are willing to buy and sell the stock for. As it turns out, the true price of NWBO Development Stage was much higher than $3. You can't undo knowledge of a stock's existence. Now that NWBO is open to a much wider market, the current price is what buyers and sellers are willing to exchange NWBO Development Stage at. It most likely will not fall back down to previous levels barring any fundamental change in the company.”
2.
And another: Pfizer, Novartis And Northwest Biotherapeutics In A Race For IVF Inspired Cancer Cure (Oct 2012)
http://seekingalpha.co...
“As far as NWBOD is concerned, the effects of any success (or failure) with DCVax®-Direct would be far more pronounced. With only $212,000 in assets and a whopping $52 million in liabilities, the balance sheet looks like a war zone. But even an abject pauper armed with a potential cancer cure is going to get attention. The risk curve with this one looks binary. Either you'll hit a home run or you'll lose everything, so don't bet the farm.”
Richard Richter 4 (1 article - link to SA removed by SA)
http://bit.ly/1qG1YTX
Northwest Biotherapeutics Raises $12M And Uplists To Nasdaq
By Richard Richter
December 24, 2012
“Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Two weeks ago I wrote a review of Northwest Biotherapeutics (NWBO) now (NWBO) about a possible Hollywood ending for the company. NWBio is a development stage microcap in biotech currently undergoing phase III trials for its therapeutic malignant brain cancer vaccine, DCVax-L. I made the case that, though the company is in financial straits, it has been that way for years and has little to no chance of reaching bankruptcy before the FDA has its final say on DCVax-L.
Since then, NWBio has raised $12M in an equity financing IPO of 3 million shares at $4 a share, effectively diluting its share price by roughly 40%. This drop comes just two months after a 1:16 reverse split on September 26 which triggered some very odd buying that shot the stock up from 28 cents past $20 that day and back down to settle at around $5.50. Back in September NWBO was traded on the low volume low liquidity OTC Bulletin Board, which contributed to such irrational price movements, but along with its $12M IPO, the stock has been uplisted to Nasdaq, upping its trading volume and easing price movements.”
Suresh Gupta 2 (Can’t find any references)
The Street contributor
Louis Dematteis 1
You reference Louis Dematteis (the one you were able to show may be a fake person) as if he’s written countless puff pieces on NWBO, when in fact he’s written ONE piece on them that I can find (from February 2012).
Is Cancer Research the New Gold Rush?
http://seekingalpha.co...
This is the extent of his paid for coverage:
“Test the depth of the water with one foot...
Northwest Biotherapeutics is still traded over-the-counter and not yet listed under NASDAQ; therefore it has no publicly traded options, but all of that may change really soon.
The company has just recently announced a 1-for-16 reverse stock split and the total number of shares was increased to 40,000,000 shares to prepare for its $25 million offering and NASDAQ listing.
This may be interpreted as a move to attract large institutional investors by increasing liquidity and its increasing its stock price to the minimum dollar value per share that most institutional investors look for before investing in a company.
Usually, after listing in one of the major exchanges and meeting some criterias to list stock options, it may take the company a few days to a few weeks before stock options will start to be traded.
Based on past Phase I/II/III clinical trials of other companies, it will take 6 months to 1 year before a treatment will be approved by the FDA and be allowed to be manufactured and sold.”
Moving on from your paid for “fake” authors, you then indicate that you will “demonstrate below, it has now become apparent that these writers also infiltrate message boards such as Yahoo Finance and Investors Hub to create the false appearance of broad support from retail investors and to refute critics. But once again, these postings are simply bought and paid for and provide misleading information to unsuspecting retail investors.”
Yet you never demonstrate this. I read, breathless, to find out what longs I might have been posting with that were in fact “paid”. In “Section V: Beyond articles - looking to the message boards”, instead all you do is state that people on the board tell others to resist "the shorts" or "the bashers". In fact, many of these warnings are coming from people using false identities who are being paid for their efforts.”
So stating it like that makes it a "fact?"
Coming from an admitted short of NWBO, it's hard to take that seriously. I wish someone were paying me for every time I posted on that board telling people to resist shorters. Instead, all you can do is state, “message boards are dumb.”
[end quote]
