Replies to post #56652 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[BooDog]

Just shootin from the hip here but imo it was presented this morning. We don't have the audio from the conference though. At least I don't. Besides that, why would we be so hyped on 12 weeks? I just don't get it. Nice hype train but really, the meat is in moving forward to phase 2/3. Could it be that we're just investing in a real bio that actually takes time to meet full end points? I'm over the 12 week bs hype even if it is showin excellent progress just from the slide this morning. I know what the ">" symbol stands for. :) and we're there.

But that's just me waiting for the follow up news this week.

[hooperg83]

It is a matter of public record that Dr. Missling stated Part B data was forthcoming in Q1 of 2016. This means that Part B data WILL be presented by the end of Q1, else the stock will take a devastating hit. This is biotech: Missling is no fool and certainly understands the implications and expectations.

The fact that the current trial in Australia got a two-year extension speaks volumes. I am uncertain who exactly is funding this extension but obviously, the overall consensus is that it is worthwhile. Whether the money is coming from Anavex or the Australian government, it doesn't matter -- it's very expensive.

I strongly suspect a PR on Monday outlining the path forward, perhaps including when/where Part B data will be presented if it is to be presented at a conference at all. Again, I tend to give Missling the benefit of the doubt. Corporate strategy is his specialty, not ours, and he is the one holding the cards.

There are only a few conferences left before the end of Q1 and a cursory search of their agendas does not reveal Anavex. Therefore, there is a GOOD CHANCE that the data will be released via standard newswire, but I present four possibilities in descending order of probability:

1. The Part B data wasn't ready for Athens and will be released via standard PR newswire. Data Good.

2. The data was ready but it's part of a separate strategy. Data Good.

3. The data will be presented at a near-term conference prior to the end of Q1. Data Good.

4. The data sucks and he didn't want to make a fool of himself at an international conference. Data Bad. Dates lapse or negative PR tanks us.

In any case, we can expect, pending a PR from Anavex on Monday, the career criminals (Feuerstein et al.) will take advantage of this uncertainty. My advice is to put blinders on and make your decisions based on the data, perhaps buying on dips when the emotional among us are fleeced. And Ivan, get a couple boxes of pantoprazole.