Replies to post #56427 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Poor Man -]

A $10 billion market cap (~100/share) is very unlikely. But consider the value lost by CLDX after the failure of Rintega: CLDX lost nearly $400 million in market cap over the lost market potential for treating a small sub-group of GBM patients, and there was very likely selling from insider information even before the announcement. Theoretically, had Rintega been approved, it's probably a safe bet that Rintega alone would contribute somewhere near $1 billion to the market cap of CLDX.

Now, since DCVax-L treats a much larger patient population, it's very likely that NWBO becomes a stock with a $20 to $30 share price (MC = $2B to $3B) in short order. Approval also validates the DCVax platform and increases the likelihood that other indications in existing trials will also be successful. So eventually the market cap will reflect that increased probability of success in some way, shape or form.

Could NWBO become a $100 stock with a market cap in excess of $10 billion? Maybe over a few years with the continued success of other trials, but the immediate future is still very promising given where the stock price is right now.

[CherryTree1]

So basically you have no concept of share price as it relates to market cap?

No IMHO it is the other way around.
You are still thinking of NWBO as a typical new startup bio-tech with a single product in the pipe-line. When DCVAX gets approved it is a game changer. It is an industry disrupter especially with Direct coming next. You need to think of this like a replacement therapy for chemo. That is the way big pharma views it and it is why they are so frightened of it. What is the market cap for companies with a large pipeline of chemo product DVCAX replaces. Novartis is $193 Billion and the stock price is $72.21 with 2.3 billion shares outstanding. It is similar story for Merck with a cap of $147 B and stock price of $52.45 with 2.7 B shares and JNJ with a market cap of $294 B and a stock price of $106.28 with 2.7 B shares. Why would a patient take a chemo drug with severe toxic side effects if they could take DCVAX instead where they have a fever for a few days and it treats many cancers the have no other effective treatement? The market cap for NWBO yesterday was $154 million with the a share price of $1.56 at close. Conservatively, the upside potential is at least 100X short term and could be >1000X (especially when you compare the number of shares of NWBO to the others) once they become profitable. The biggest problem is that they need to continue to funnel profits into new manufacturing capability to handle the demand (but what a problem to have). We will see. Hopefully some time this year. Hope that helps.