Now you have me re-examining the monthly chart. Currently we have a reversal candle with a long tail of hammer candle well outside lower BB and the body completely within. We have one more day in Feb on monday to close below about 188. Currently lower band and 33 ma are around 188.85 also.
This is on SPY chart, however $SPX although showing similar has a greater chance of closing out month below 33ma which is usually grim when sloped upwards. For general trend and long term analysis i would have to default to $SPX Both charts below:
FWIW, I sold my June 17th 170 puts some time ago but just added June 165's.
re: continuation up, agreed. we've had the "not october" convo a few times recently, but consider the comparison of the past couple weeks to early october in the chart below. (two blue rect areas in chart)
• similar STO pattern, different from other trips to OB: STO rises to OB, but then lingers horizontally in OB.
• very similar ds50, ema9, ema27, dBB patterns, including crosses. • very similar Awe pattern
• similar candle pattern: "leap up/ retrace a bit" but on a slightly faster tempo with larger daily moves (possibly due to increased ambient market anxiety?)
• one diff is that daily ADX hasn't crossed bullish yet. but it's trying to. and the other indicators seem to match the early october pattern fairly well. suggests 204 gap fill is feasible this month, if they are gunning for it. to point, maybe even using the same algo patterns that drove october thus the similarities in MAs/crosses/Awe/etc over the past couple weeks.
• the capper of this is the similar RSI pattern and level at this "stage" of the rally. as the chart shows, october rally didn't roll over until RSI went fully OB. if history is repeating, that's the signal i'll watch for to go heavy into LT puts.
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