Replies to post #8766 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[Petz]

I rise in unemployment is typical at the end of a recession because more people start looking for jobs. Even without that effect, employment is the last thing to improve.

By the way, I think the #1 reason tech spending is so weak is deflation -- it will be cheaper next year.

Petz

[spokeshave]

YB: Re: Most worrying (or confusing) thing for me is bad employment data.

There is some speculation that the recent spike in unemployment is actually a *good* sign, as it indicates that many people who considered themselves out of the employment market now consider themselves back in. Time will tell, but I think that there are very good signs that a recovery is on its way. Intel is certainly doing its part. With 100% YOY earnings growth, and a very optimistic outlook, watch the market take off tomorrow...

Economy can't improve until corporations will start to hire, can it?

Yeah, it can, with increases in productivity. It is called a "jobless recovery". We may very well see something like this at first. However, historically speaking, the unemployment rate is not really all that high for a recession recovery period. In 1992, it peaked at 7.8%, and in 1983, it peaked at 10.8%. If we get out if this bad period with a peak of 6.4%, it will be a very good thing. We were spoiled by having a period preceding the recession of unemployment in the low 4% range. That is very unusual. I remember a time when 5.5% was considered "full employment".

http://www.neatideas.com/data/data/UNRATE.htm

[sgolds]

yourbankruptcy, we are in a bull market, but not the bull market everyone is waiting on. This is what is called a 'counter-trend bull'. The overall trend is a bear (some call it a 'secular bear') which contains cyclical bulls and bears within it.

I am hopeful that the next bear does not revisit the lows of the last one (actually the triple lows set in the last year). A higher low in the next cyclical bear would be a sign that this market is working its way to the next bull market.

When does a secular bear end? By definition, the secular bear is over when the broad-based indices exceed the peak of the last secular bull (something over 1500 on the S&P 500). Then you know we are in a sustainable uptrend.

However, from the low point of the bear to the end, there is quite a bit of money to be made on the long side! So it isn't good to wait until it is over. Until you reach the end, though, you should be selling the peaks and buying the bottoms - if you can figure them out, that is!