agreed on all points. looking at the 20yr monthly, after the ema9-sma20 cross in 2001 & 2008, there were 1-2 green months before the steep descent began.
if the pattern repeats, that would be up for march, maybe april, then steep declines starting in may or june. possibly in april.
markets & futs rallying in pre today. i'm still playing this intraday until the upward momo fades to avoid another october adventure.
but if we fill the 204 gap, i'll be hitting the LT puts. can't imagine SPY rallying higher than that. and would be surprised to see 197-198 range, oft discussed here, be the final peak.
re: what comes after the drop, i suspect most aren't ready for that reality. but if all the overleveraged pieces unravel we could be looking at double-digit unemployment. :-(
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