Not accepting the no bottom in place thesis. There is a closer bottom if it holds as it is currently doing. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p28551732953 Going back to August $3 was tested on the way up and is still a reasonable support to hold as a low. Coming forward, Nov 3.16 and the recent 3.30 (test 4 times) are support levels. Putting that together there is an entire zone from 3-3.30 that is strong support. Possible to break sure, but saying no bottom until 2.40-2.70 is not technically accurate. What is accurate is that there is no confirmed up trend and the down trend line from $14 area is holding. Drawing the bottom of the wedge from 3.16 through 3.30 or the quad bottom gives our present support line and location of price battle within that wedge. It could break up or down. That is the bottom unless it breaks down through...Basic TA.... Even though 2.40-2.70 is "possible" it is not truly in play until the 3.-3.30 zone fails. Further. Note the rising rsi since november. macd blue bars still above zero. adx black line (trend) is flat and thus no trend is established at present. AVXL stock price wants to go up according to that data. Will it? Don't know yet as it hasn't been confirmed. Hitting the 200day will IMO be more of a function of IBB and general market than AVXL. IBB is so far holding its 200 day and suggests at least a bounce based on the indicators and bb excesses. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IBB&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p49356645319 Could IBB still break down further. Sure... Will it? Ask the outside forces weighing on our markets Conclusion....thesis that there is no bottom until 2.40-2.70 range (AVXL 200 day) is a possibility only until confirmed. There are in fact bottom points that can hold between here and there.
Fun little exercise. Thanks for prompting it. Wish you Green
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